CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
73-65 | Road
5
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
70-69 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Sean Burke
#59 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Ronel Blanco
#56 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Burke | 7-6 | 3.32 | 1.15 | 149.0 | 161 |
| Ronel Blanco | 0-1 | 7.71 | 1.46 | 23.1 | 20 |
7-6
W-L
0-1
3.32 Ldr
ERA
7.71
1.15 Ldr
WHIP
1.46
149.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
23.1
161 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
20
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
69%
ASTROS
31%
▲ Edge: +15.80% (CHW)
WHITE SOX
54%
Book Odds: -116
ASTROS
51%
Book Odds: -104
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.3
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.8 (Over)
Over 8.5
67%
Under 8.5
33%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.3
CHICAGO
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHW -2.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHW)
CHW By 1-2 runs
19.4%
CHW By 3-4 runs
18.9%
HOU By 1-2 runs
12.7%
HOU By 3-4 runs
7.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
6.3
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5
Houston
4
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
Chicago
6
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5
Houston
4
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
White Sox
Win
69% Win Prob
A
Sim
White Sox
Win
70% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
White Sox (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.3
C
Sim
White Sox (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.3
B
Sim
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 30, 2026
CHW @ HOU
7 - 3
Sep 29, 2026
CHW @ HOU
6 - 3
Sep 3, 2026
CHW @ HOU
2 - 6
Sep 2, 2026
CHW @ HOU
0 - 2
Sep 1, 2026
CHW @ HOU
5 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHW
vs
Houston
HOU
1
Games Played
▲
2
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.324
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.415
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.412
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.826
▲
OPS
.582
1
Home Runs
▲
4
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+50.0% more
Chicago: 6.0
vs
Houston: 3.0
Walks (L5)
+39.1% more
Chicago: 6.0
vs
Houston: 3.7
OPS (Season)
+24.4%
Chicago: 82.6%
vs
Houston: 58.2%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+18.6%
Chicago: 41.5%
vs
Houston: 22.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHW Score
6.3
5
HOU Score
4.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.0 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.5 / 6.6
3.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 0.9
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.8 / 8.4
12.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
13.4 / 10.7
7.0 / 11.0
Walks
3.7 / 6.0
6.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +109 / -131
→
-116 / -104
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
↓
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW
Advantage
88-79-0
(52.7%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW
Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8%
Total +/-: +0.9
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
CHW
HOU
CHW
ML
50%
81-82
49%
81-86
47%
77-87
56%
94-73
ATS
56%
91-72
59%
99-68
55%
90-74
56%
93-74
TTL
45%
70-84-9
58%
96-69-2
45%
69-86-9
51%
84-81-2
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