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MILWAUKEE

BREWERSMIL

86-53  |  Road

9
FINAL
Tue, Sep 1 • 7:40 PM ET
Wrigley Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

78-61  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Robert Gasser
STARTING PITCHER

Robert Gasser

#54 | SP
@
Matthew Boyd
STARTING PITCHER

Matthew Boyd

#16 | SP
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Robert Gasser 4-5 4.59 1.30 82.1 78
Matthew Boyd 8-3 3.99 1.22 97.0 76
4-5 W-L 8-3
4.59 ERA Ldr 3.99
1.30 WHIP Ldr 1.22
82.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 97.0
78 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 76
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
40%
📊
CUBS
60%
▲ Edge: +5.10% (CHC)
BREWERS 50% Book Odds: +100
CUBS 55% Book Odds: -121
Book Implied: 50% / 54.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.3
Projected
Book Total
10.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.3 (Over)
Over 10.0 70%
Under 10.0 30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
CHICAGO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.6 points (Chicago)
BrewersMIL (-1.5) 0 CubsCHC (+1.5)
Chicago Cubs (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Brewers Cover

39.2%

Cubs Cover

60.8%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

MIL By 1-2 runs

16.1%

MIL By 3-4 runs

10.3%

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CHC By 3-4 runs

16.6%

AI Model Projected Score
5.6
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 5.80
6.7
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 4.20
Simulated Score
4
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 5.80
6
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 4.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cubs Loss
60% Win Prob
C
Sim Cubs Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Cubs (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.1
B
Sim Cubs (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o10.0 Win
Proj Total: 12.3
A
Sim o10.0 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 3, 2026 MIL @ CHC 1 - 2
Sep 2, 2026 MIL @ CHC 9 - 5
Sep 1, 2026 MIL @ CHC 9 - 4
Aug 31, 2026 MIL @ CHC 3 - 17
Jun 28, 2026 CHC @ MIL 4 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee MIL
vs
Chicago CHC
142
Games Played
142
5.04
Runs / Game
▲ 5.35
.257 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.251
.339
On-Base (OBP)
.339
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .431
.739
OPS
▲ .770
131
Home Runs
▲ 199
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +352.8% more
Chicago: 4.8 vs Milwaukee: 1.1
Total Bases (L5) +110.5% more
Chicago: 30.3 vs Milwaukee: 14.4
Hits (L5) +53.9% more
Chicago: 14.1 vs Milwaukee: 9.2
Walks (L5) +53.6% more
Chicago: 4.5 vs Milwaukee: 2.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIL Score 5.6 9
CHC Score 6.7 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.7 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 14.1 / 9.2 6.0 / 13.0
Home Runs 4.8 / 1.1 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 6.1 / 9.8 8.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 30.3 / 14.4 9.0 / 22.0
Walks 4.5 / 2.9 3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -106 / -114 → +100 / -121 ↑
37%TICKETS63%
35%MONEY65%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
50%TICKETS50%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: 9.5 → 10 ↑
82%TICKETS18%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL Advantage
88-54-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
CHC
80-62-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
CHC
(48.6%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
63-75-4
O: 45.7% / U: 54.4% Total +/-: +0.7
CHC
78-62-2
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
MIL
CHC
MIL
ML
56% 78-62
60% 83-55
53% 73-66
51% 70-68
ATS
58% 80-59-1
58% 80-58
51% 71-68
49% 67-71
TTL
51% 70-66-4
40% 53-79-6
82% 113-25-1
86% 117-19-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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