MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
86-53 | Road
9
CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
78-61 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Robert Gasser
#54 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Matthew Boyd
#16 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Gasser | 4-5 | 4.59 | 1.30 | 82.1 | 78 |
| Matthew Boyd | 8-3 | 3.99 | 1.22 | 97.0 | 76 |
4-5
W-L
8-3
4.59
ERA
Ldr 3.99
1.30
WHIP
Ldr 1.22
82.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 97.0
78 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
76
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
40%
CUBS
60%
▲ Edge: +5.10% (CHC)
BREWERS
50%
Book Odds: +100
CUBS
55%
Book Odds: -121
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.3
Projected
Book Total
10.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.3 (Over)
Over 10.0
70%
Under 10.0
30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
CHICAGO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.6 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)
MIL By 1-2 runs
16.1%
MIL By 3-4 runs
10.3%
CHC By 1-2 runs
19.6%
CHC By 3-4 runs
16.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
5.6
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 5.80
Chicago
6.7
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 4.20
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
4
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 5.80
Chicago
6
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 4.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cubs
Loss
60% Win Prob
C
Sim
Cubs
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Cubs (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.1
B
Sim
Cubs (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o10.0
Win
Proj Total: 12.3
A
Sim
o10.0
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 9, 2026
CHC @ MIL
6 - 8
Sep 8, 2026
CHC @ MIL
3 - 4
Sep 7, 2026
CHC @ MIL
3 - 4
Sep 3, 2026
MIL @ CHC
1 - 2
Sep 2, 2026
MIL @ CHC
9 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee
MIL
vs
Chicago
CHC
162
▲
Games Played
2
5.14
▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.341
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.403
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.743
▲
OPS
.374
154
▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+352.8% more
Chicago: 4.8
vs
Milwaukee: 1.1
Total Bases (L5)
+110.5% more
Chicago: 30.3
vs
Milwaukee: 14.4
Hits (L5)
+53.9% more
Chicago: 14.1
vs
Milwaukee: 9.2
Walks (L5)
+53.6% more
Chicago: 4.5
vs
Milwaukee: 2.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
5.6
9
CHC Score
6.7
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.7
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
14.1 / 9.2
6.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
4.8 / 1.1
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
6.1 / 9.8
8.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
30.3 / 14.4
9.0 / 22.0
Walks
4.5 / 2.9
3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -106 / -114
→
+100 / -121
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 9.5
→
10
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
CHC
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
MIL
CHC
MIL
ML
58%
93-68
62%
101-61
51%
82-79
52%
84-78
ATS
61%
97-63-1
58%
94-68
47%
75-85-1
48%
78-84
TTL
52%
81-74-6
40%
62-92-8
46%
72-83-6
50%
77-77-8
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