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SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

65-74  |  Road

9
FINAL
Tue, Sep 1 • 6:45 PM ET
Fenway Park
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

75-64  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Bryan Woo
STARTING PITCHER

Bryan Woo

#22 | SP
@
Jedixson Paez
STARTING PITCHER

Jedixson Paez

#65 | SP
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Bryan Woo 9-9 4.36 1.10 142.1 142
Jedixson Paez 0-0 18.00 2.33 3.0 --
9-9 W-L 0-0
4.36 Ldr ERA 18.00
1.10 Ldr WHIP 2.33
142.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 3.0
142 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
76%
📊
RED SOX
24%
▲ Edge: +25.80% (SEA)
MARINERS 50% Book Odds: -101
RED SOX 55% Book Odds: -120
Book Implied: 50.20% / 54.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.2
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +3.2 (Over)
Over 7.0 78%
Under 7.0 22%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
SEATTLE
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Seattle)
MarinersSEA (-1.5) 0 Red SoxBOS (+1.5)
Seattle Mariners (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mariners Cover

77.3%

Red Sox Cover

22.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SEA -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)

SEA By 1-2 runs

18.4%

SEA By 3-4 runs

19.6%

BOS By 1-2 runs

10.6%

BOS By 3-4 runs

5.4%

AI Model Projected Score
6.6
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 4.20
3.6
BOSTON
Book Implied: 2.80
Simulated Score
5
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 4.20
3
BOSTON
Book Implied: 2.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Mariners Win
76% Win Prob
A
Sim Mariners Win
70% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mariners (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
B
Sim Mariners (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o7.0 Win
Proj Total: 10.2
A
Sim o7.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 2, 2026 SEA @ BOS 8 - 3
Sep 1, 2026 SEA @ BOS 9 - 6
Aug 31, 2026 SEA @ BOS 8 - 9
Jun 21, 2026 BOS @ SEA 1 - 3
Jun 20, 2026 BOS @ SEA 5 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle SEA
vs
Boston BOS
142
Games Played
▲ 143
3.98
Runs / Game
▲ 4.47
.230
Avg (AVG)
▲ .249
.311
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .323
.376
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .406
.687
OPS
▲ .729
163 ▲
Home Runs
148
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +36.8% more
Seattle: 10.2 vs Boston: 6.5
Home Runs (L5) +12.9% more
Seattle: 1.2 vs Boston: 1.0
Home Runs (Season) +9.2% more
Seattle: 163.0 vs Boston: 148.0
Errors (L5) +59.0% more
Boston: 0.7 vs Seattle: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SEA Score 6.6 9
BOS Score 3.6 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.2 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.9 / 6.4 11.0 / 14.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 1.2 2.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 6.5 / 10.2 10.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 14.7 / 11.9 20.0 / 27.0
Walks 4.5 / 3.2 2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +137 / -167 → -101 / -120 ↓
35%TICKETS65%
25%MONEY75%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5 ↓
28%TICKETS72%
22%MONEY78%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 7 ↓
85%TICKETS15%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
66-77-0 (46.2%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-:
BOS Advantage
78-65-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.8%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-:
BOS Advantage
(47.6%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
75-61-7
O: 55.2% / U: 44.9% Total +/-: +0.6
BOS
68-71-4
O: 48.9% / U: 51.1% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
SEA
BOS
SEA
ML
48% 67-73
50% 71-72
47% 67-75
53% 76-67
ATS
55% 77-63
61% 87-56
43% 61-81
52% 74-69
TTL
49% 66-69-5
55% 74-61-8
85% 121-21
84% 118-23-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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