SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
73-66 | Road
3
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
66-73 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Randy Vasquez
#98 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Nick Lodolo
#40 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Vasquez | 10-6 | 4.02 | 1.28 | 123.0 | 76 |
| Nick Lodolo | 3-3 | 5.24 | 1.54 | 79.0 | 64 |
10-6
W-L
3-3
4.02 Ldr
ERA
5.24
1.28 Ldr
WHIP
1.54
123.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
79.0
76 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
64
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
56%
REDS
44%
PADRES
58%
Book Odds: -136
REDS
47%
Book Odds: +113
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.3
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 9.0
53%
Under 9.0
47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.7
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CIN +0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
SD By 1-2 runs
19.4%
SD By 3-4 runs
15.5%
CIN By 1-2 runs
17.0%
CIN By 3-4 runs
11.5%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
5
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 5.20
Cincinnati
4.3
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3.80
Simulated Score
San Diego
5
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 5.20
Cincinnati
6
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Padres
Loss
56% Win Prob
C
Sim
Reds
Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Reds (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +0.7
C
Sim
Reds (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.3
D
Sim
o9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 2, 2026
SD @ CIN
3 - 7
Sep 1, 2026
SD @ CIN
3 - 4
Aug 31, 2026
SD @ CIN
5 - 0
Jun 10, 2026
CIN @ SD
4 - 5
Jun 9, 2026
CIN @ SD
5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
2
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.925
▲
OPS
.699
4
Home Runs
▲
213
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+31.5% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Cincinnati: 4.1
OPS (Season)
+22.6%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Cincinnati: 69.9%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+16.9%
San Diego: 56.3%
vs
Cincinnati: 39.4%
Hits (L5)
+13.4% more
San Diego: 9.5
vs
Cincinnati: 8.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
5.0
3
CIN Score
4.3
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.0 / 0.5
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.2 / 9.5
8.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.9 / 0.4
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
10.2 / 8.8
7.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
15.1 / 12.2
10.0 / 18.0
Walks
3.3 / 2.7
4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -148 / +122
→
-136 / +113
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 9
→
9
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
SD
CIN
SD
ML
55%
88-71
51%
85-83
49%
79-81
51%
85-82
ATS
54%
86-73
54%
91-77
50%
80-80
55%
92-75
TTL
53%
81-73-5
51%
82-80-6
54%
83-72-5
54%
86-74-6
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