Home / MLB Projections MLB / Yankees @ Angels NYY @ LAA

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

78-60  |  Road

1
FINAL
Mon, Aug 31 • 9:38 PM ET
Angel Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

53-85  |  Home

10
Probable Pitchers
Elmer Rodriguez
STARTING PITCHER

Elmer Rodriguez

#71 | SP
@
Walbert Urena
STARTING PITCHER

Walbert Urena

#57 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Elmer Rodriguez 0-2 4.70 1.52 23.0 16
Walbert Urena 8-9 2.94 1.29 116.1 112
0-2 W-L 8-9
4.70 ERA Ldr 2.94
1.52 WHIP Ldr 1.29
23.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 116.1
16 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 112
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
36%
📊
ANGELS
64%
▲ Edge: +17% (LAA)
YANKEES 55% Book Odds: -121
ANGELS 47% Book Odds: +113
Book Implied: 54.80% / 46.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.1
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 (Over)
Over 8.0 53%
Under 8.0 47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Los Angeles)
YankeesNYY (-1.5) 0 AngelsLAA (+1.5)
Los Angeles Angels (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Yankees Cover

35.4%

Angels Cover

64.6%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAA -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)

NYY By 1-2 runs

15.0%

NYY By 3-4 runs

9.2%

LAA By 1-2 runs

19.7%

LAA By 3-4 runs

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.3
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4.80
4.8
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 3.20
Simulated Score
3
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4.80
5
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 3.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Angels Win
64% Win Prob
A
Sim Angels Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Angels (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
A
Sim Angels (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.1
C
Sim o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 2, 2026 NYY @ LAA 6 - 3
Sep 1, 2026 NYY @ LAA 7 - 3
Aug 31, 2026 NYY @ LAA 1 - 10
Apr 16, 2026 LAA @ NYY 11 - 4
Apr 15, 2026 LAA @ NYY 4 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYY
vs
Los Angeles LAA
1
Games Played
▲ 162
9.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.04
.375 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.447 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.594 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.369
1.041 ▲
OPS
.679
2
Home Runs
▲ 154
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +7600.0% more
Los Angeles: 154.0 vs New York: 2.0
Walks (L5) +102.4% more
Los Angeles: 5.0 vs New York: 2.5
Home Runs (L5) +78.2% more
New York: 2.2 vs Los Angeles: 0.5
Errors (L5) +63.0% more
New York: 0.8 vs Los Angeles: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYY Score 3.3 1
LAA Score 4.8 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.8 0.0 / 3.0
Hits 6.0 / 9.8 12.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.5 / 2.2 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.0 / 8.2 10.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 8.6 / 17.3 16.0 / 9.0
Walks 5.0 / 2.5 4.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -149 / +123 → -121 / +113 ↑
83%TICKETS17%
84%MONEY16%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
76%TICKETS24%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 8 ↓
89%TICKETS11%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
NYY
LAA
NYY
ML
59% 96-66
47% 76-85
55% 89-73
52% 85-77
ATS
60% 97-65
59% 95-66
51% 82-80
53% 86-76
TTL
53% 83-74-5
53% 81-73-7
52% 82-75-5
53% 82-72-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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