CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
72-65 | Road
3
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
70-68 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Anthony Kay
#18 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Peter Lambert
#38 | SP| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Kay | 9-6 | 4.09 | 1.34 | 132.0 | 108 |
| Peter Lambert | 8-7 | 3.66 | 1.23 | 128.0 | 125 |
9-6
W-L
8-7
4.09
ERA
Ldr 3.66
1.34
WHIP
Ldr 1.23
132.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
128.0
108
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 125
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
52%
ASTROS
48%
▲ Edge: +6.70% (CHW)
WHITE SOX
46%
Book Odds: +120
ASTROS
56%
Book Odds: -129
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.2
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.7 (Over)
Over 8.5
67%
Under 8.5
33%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
CHICAGO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHW -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHW)
CHW By 1-2 runs
18.7%
CHW By 3-4 runs
14.1%
HOU By 1-2 runs
18.1%
HOU By 3-4 runs
13.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
5.2
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 3.50
Houston
5
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
Chicago
4
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 3.50
Houston
5
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
White Sox
Loss
52% Win Prob
D
Sim
Astros
Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
White Sox (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.2
C
Sim
White Sox (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 10.2
B
Sim
o9.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 3, 2026
CHW @ HOU
2 - 6
Sep 2, 2026
CHW @ HOU
0 - 2
Sep 1, 2026
CHW @ HOU
5 - 1
Aug 31, 2026
CHW @ HOU
3 - 6
Jul 26, 2026
HOU @ CHW
3 - 12
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHW
vs
Houston
HOU
142
Games Played
▲
143
4.72
▲
Runs / Game
4.51
.236
Avg (AVG)
▲
.240
.318
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.315
.405
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.408
.723
▲
OPS
.722
186
Home Runs
186
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+4.4% more
Chicago: 4.7
vs
Houston: 4.5
On-Base Pct (Season)
+0.3%
Chicago: 31.8%
vs
Houston: 31.5%
Home Runs (L5)
+56.0% more
Houston: 1.4
vs
Chicago: 0.8
Errors (L5)
+41.0% more
Houston: 0.4
vs
Chicago: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHW Score
5.2
3
HOU Score
5.0
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.0
2.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.2 / 7.3
8.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 0.8
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.7 / 7.2
8.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
13.1 / 11.5
14.0 / 9.0
Walks
4.0 / 4.1
3.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +104 / -126
→
+120 / -129
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW
Advantage
74-68-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
HOU
73-70-0
(51.1%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW
Advantage
(58.5%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
HOU
(51.1%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
79-61-2
O: 56.4% / U: 43.6%
Total +/-: +0.8
HOU
71-64-8
O: 52.6% / U: 47.4%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
CHW
HOU
CHW
ML
49%
70-72
50%
71-71
48%
68-75
59%
84-58
ATS
57%
81-61
60%
85-57
50%
72-71
57%
81-61
TTL
45%
61-74-7
57%
80-60-2
84%
118-22-3
86%
122-20
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