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CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

72-65  |  Road

3
FINAL
Mon, Aug 31 • 8:10 PM ET
Daikin Park
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

70-68  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Anthony Kay
STARTING PITCHER

Anthony Kay

#18 | Starting Pitcher
@
Peter Lambert
STARTING PITCHER

Peter Lambert

#38 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Anthony Kay 9-6 4.09 1.34 132.0 108
Peter Lambert 8-7 3.66 1.23 128.0 125
9-6 W-L 8-7
4.09 ERA Ldr 3.66
1.34 WHIP Ldr 1.23
132.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 128.0
108 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 125
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
52%
📊
ASTROS
48%
▲ Edge: +6.70% (CHW)
WHITE SOX 46% Book Odds: +120
ASTROS 56% Book Odds: -129
Book Implied: 45.50% / 56.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.2
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 (Over)
Over 8.5 67%
Under 8.5 33%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
CHICAGO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (Chicago)
White SoxCHW (+1.5) 0 AstrosHOU (-1.5)
Chicago White Sox (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

White Sox Cover

52.0%

Astros Cover

48.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHW -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHW)

CHW By 1-2 runs

18.7%

CHW By 3-4 runs

14.1%

HOU By 1-2 runs

18.1%

HOU By 3-4 runs

13.0%

AI Model Projected Score
5.2
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 3.50
5
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
4
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 3.50
5
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI White Sox Loss
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Astros Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI White Sox (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.2
C
Sim White Sox (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.2
B
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 30, 2026 CHW @ HOU 7 - 3
Sep 29, 2026 CHW @ HOU 6 - 3
Sep 3, 2026 CHW @ HOU 2 - 6
Sep 2, 2026 CHW @ HOU 0 - 2
Sep 1, 2026 CHW @ HOU 5 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHW
vs
Houston HOU
1
Games Played
▲ 2
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.324 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.415 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.412 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.826 ▲
OPS
.582
1
Home Runs
▲ 4
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +50.0% more
Chicago: 6.0 vs Houston: 3.0
OPS (Season) +24.4%
Chicago: 82.6% vs Houston: 58.2%
On-Base Pct (Season) +18.6%
Chicago: 41.5% vs Houston: 22.9%
Batting Avg (Season) +15.5%
Chicago: 32.4% vs Houston: 16.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHW Score 5.2 3
HOU Score 5.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.0 2.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.2 / 7.3 8.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 0.8 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.7 / 7.2 8.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 13.1 / 11.5 14.0 / 9.0
Walks 4.0 / 4.1 3.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +104 / -126 → +120 / -129 ↑
31%TICKETS69%
35%MONEY65%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
52%TICKETS48%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 8.5
90%TICKETS10%
91%MONEY9%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW Advantage
88-79-0 (52.7%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
HOU
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8% Total +/-: +0.9
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
CHW
HOU
CHW
ML
50% 81-82
49% 81-86
47% 77-87
56% 94-73
ATS
56% 91-72
59% 99-68
55% 90-74
56% 93-74
TTL
45% 70-84-9
58% 96-69-2
45% 69-86-9
51% 84-81-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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