MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
85-53 | Road
3
CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
78-60 | Home
17
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kyle Harrison
#52 | SP@
STARTING PITCHER
Clay Holmes
#25 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Harrison | 10-3 | 2.79 | 1.12 | 103.1 | 127 |
| Clay Holmes | 5-6 | 2.26 | 1.06 | 75.2 | 55 |
10-3
W-L
5-6
2.79
ERA
Ldr 2.26
1.12
WHIP
Ldr 1.06
103.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
75.2
127 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
55
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
36%
CUBS
64%
▲ Edge: +12.70% (CHC)
BREWERS
51%
Book Odds: -103
CUBS
51%
Book Odds: -105
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
9.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 9.5
65%
Under 9.5
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
CHICAGO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.1 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)
MIL By 1-2 runs
14.7%
MIL By 3-4 runs
8.9%
CHC By 1-2 runs
19.7%
CHC By 3-4 runs
17.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
4.7
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 5.50
Chicago
6.3
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
3
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 5.50
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cubs
Win
64% Win Prob
B
Sim
Cubs
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Cubs (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.6
B
Sim
Cubs (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
o9.5
Win
Proj Total: 11.0
B
Sim
u9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 3, 2026
MIL @ CHC
1 - 2
Sep 2, 2026
MIL @ CHC
9 - 5
Sep 1, 2026
MIL @ CHC
9 - 4
Aug 31, 2026
MIL @ CHC
3 - 17
Jun 28, 2026
CHC @ MIL
4 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee
MIL
vs
Chicago
CHC
142
Games Played
142
5.04
Runs / Game
▲
5.35
.257
▲
Avg (AVG)
.251
.339
On-Base (OBP)
.339
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.431
.739
OPS
▲
.770
131
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+144.5% more
Chicago: 2.7
vs
Milwaukee: 1.1
Total Bases (L5)
+52.3% more
Chicago: 21.5
vs
Milwaukee: 14.1
Home Runs (Season)
+51.9% more
Chicago: 199.0
vs
Milwaukee: 131.0
Hits (L5)
+20.8% more
Chicago: 11.2
vs
Milwaukee: 9.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
4.7
3
CHC Score
6.3
17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.5
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
11.2 / 9.3
20.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
2.7 / 1.1
9.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.6 / 9.2
3.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
21.5 / 14.1
48.0 / 15.0
Walks
3.2 / 3.4
7.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -110 / -110
→
-103 / -105
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 9.5
→
9.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
Advantage
88-54-0
(62.0%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-:
CHC
80-62-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-:
CHC
(48.6%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
63-75-4
O: 45.7% / U: 54.4%
Total +/-: +0.7
CHC
78-62-2
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3%
Total +/-: +1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
MIL
CHC
MIL
ML
56%
78-62
60%
83-55
53%
73-66
51%
70-68
ATS
58%
80-59-1
58%
80-58
51%
71-68
49%
67-71
TTL
51%
70-66-4
40%
53-79-6
82%
113-25-1
86%
117-19-2
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