SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
64-74 | Road
8
BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
75-63 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
George Kirby
#68 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Payton Tolle
#70 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kirby | 9-10 | 4.02 | 1.33 | 147.2 | 126 |
| Payton Tolle | 8-6 | 3.09 | 1.09 | 125.1 | 141 |
9-10
W-L
8-6
4.02
ERA
Ldr 3.09
1.33
WHIP
Ldr 1.09
147.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
125.1
126
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 141
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
43%
RED SOX
57%
▲ Edge: +0.50% (SEA)
MARINERS
42%
Book Odds: +138
RED SOX
60%
Book Odds: -148
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.3
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.8 (Over)
Over 7.5
59%
Under 7.5
41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.9
SEATTLE
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Seattle)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SEA +0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)
SEA By 1-2 runs
16.6%
SEA By 3-4 runs
10.9%
BOS By 1-2 runs
19.5%
BOS By 3-4 runs
16.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Seattle
3.7
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 3
Boston
4.6
BOSTON
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
Seattle
3
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 3
Boston
5
BOSTON
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox
Win
57% Win Prob
C
Sim
Red Sox
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mariners (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +0.9
C
Sim
Red Sox (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.3
C
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 2, 2026
SEA @ BOS
8 - 3
Sep 1, 2026
SEA @ BOS
9 - 6
Aug 31, 2026
SEA @ BOS
8 - 9
Jun 21, 2026
BOS @ SEA
1 - 3
Jun 20, 2026
BOS @ SEA
5 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle
SEA
vs
Boston
BOS
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.10
▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.233
▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.314
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.379
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.693
▲
OPS
.409
182
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+87.0% more
Boston: 1.1
vs
Seattle: 0.2
Hits (L5)
+81.2% more
Boston: 7.3
vs
Seattle: 4.0
Total Bases (L5)
+54.2% more
Boston: 10.6
vs
Seattle: 6.9
Walks (L5)
+28.8% more
Boston: 4.3
vs
Seattle: 3.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SEA Score
3.7
8
BOS Score
4.6
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.1 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.3 / 4.0
12.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
0.5 / 0.8
2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
6.7 / 9.9
6.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
10.6 / 6.9
23.0 / 22.0
Walks
4.3 / 3.3
5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +135 / -163
→
+138 / -148
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
7.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
BOS
Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
SEA
BOS
SEA
ML
50%
80-80
50%
81-81
47%
76-87
52%
85-77
ATS
58%
93-67
60%
98-64
48%
79-84
59%
95-67
TTL
46%
72-83-5
56%
85-67-10
47%
74-83-6
53%
81-71-10
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