Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mariners @ Red Sox SEA @ BOS

SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

64-74  |  Road

8
FINAL
Mon, Aug 31 • 6:45 PM ET
Fenway Park
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

75-63  |  Home

9
Probable Pitchers
George Kirby
STARTING PITCHER

George Kirby

#68 | SP
@
Payton Tolle
STARTING PITCHER

Payton Tolle

#70 | SP
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
George Kirby 9-10 4.02 1.33 147.2 126
Payton Tolle 8-6 3.09 1.09 125.1 141
9-10 W-L 8-6
4.02 ERA Ldr 3.09
1.33 WHIP Ldr 1.09
147.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 125.1
126 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 141
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
43%
📊
RED SOX
57%
▲ Edge: +0.50% (SEA)
MARINERS 42% Book Odds: +138
RED SOX 60% Book Odds: -148
Book Implied: 42% / 59.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.3
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 (Over)
Over 7.5 59%
Under 7.5 41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.9
SEATTLE
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Seattle)
MarinersSEA (+1.5) 0 Red SoxBOS (-1.5)
Seattle Mariners (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mariners Cover

58.9%

Red Sox Cover

41.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SEA +0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)

SEA By 1-2 runs

16.6%

SEA By 3-4 runs

10.9%

BOS By 1-2 runs

19.5%

BOS By 3-4 runs

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
3.7
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 3
4.6
BOSTON
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
3
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 3
5
BOSTON
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Red Sox Win
57% Win Prob
C
Sim Red Sox Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mariners (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +0.9
C
Sim Red Sox (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.3
C
Sim o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 2, 2026 SEA @ BOS 8 - 3
Sep 1, 2026 SEA @ BOS 9 - 6
Aug 31, 2026 SEA @ BOS 8 - 9
Jun 21, 2026 BOS @ SEA 1 - 3
Jun 20, 2026 BOS @ SEA 5 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle SEA
vs
Boston BOS
142
Games Played
142
3.98
Runs / Game
▲ 4.46
.230
Avg (AVG)
▲ .249
.311
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .323
.376
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .407
.687
OPS
▲ .729
163 ▲
Home Runs
148
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +65.0% more
Boston: 0.9 vs Seattle: 0.2
Hits (L5) +64.6% more
Boston: 6.7 vs Seattle: 4.0
Total Bases (L5) +51.0% more
Boston: 10.4 vs Seattle: 6.9
Walks (L5) +42.0% more
Boston: 4.7 vs Seattle: 3.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SEA Score 3.7 8
BOS Score 4.6 9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.9 / 0.2 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.7 / 4.0 12.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 0.5 / 0.8 2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 6.9 / 9.9 6.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 10.4 / 6.9 23.0 / 22.0
Walks 4.7 / 3.3 5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +135 / -163 → +138 / -148 ↓
13%TICKETS87%
6%MONEY94%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
5%TICKETS95%
13%MONEY87%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 7.5 ↓
69%TICKETS31%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
66-76-0 (46.5%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-:
BOS Advantage
77-65-0 (54.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(38.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-:
BOS Advantage
(47.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
74-61-7
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +0.6
BOS
68-70-4
O: 49.3% / U: 50.7% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
SEA
BOS
SEA
ML
47% 66-73
50% 71-71
48% 67-74
54% 76-66
ATS
55% 77-62
61% 86-56
43% 61-80
52% 74-68
TTL
49% 66-68-5
54% 73-61-8
86% 121-20
84% 118-22-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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