Home / MLB Projections MLB / Red Sox @ Yankees BOS @ NYY

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

74-63  |  Road

1
FINAL
Sun, Aug 30 • 1:35 PM ET
Yankee Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

78-59  |  Home

16
Probable Pitchers
Ranger Suarez
STARTING PITCHER

Ranger Suarez

#55 | Starting Pitcher
@
Will Warren
STARTING PITCHER

Will Warren

#29 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Ranger Suarez 5-3 3.35 1.20 118.1 117
Will Warren 8-6 4.39 1.42 127.0 126
5-3 W-L 8-6
3.35 Ldr ERA 4.39
1.20 Ldr WHIP 1.42
118.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 127.0
117 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 126
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
51%
📊
YANKEES
49%
▲ Edge: +5.40% (NYY)
RED SOX 59% Book Odds: -141
YANKEES 43% Book Odds: +131
Book Implied: 58.50% / 43.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.1
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 (Over)
Over 8.0 52%
Under 8.0 48%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.1
NEW YORK
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (New York)
Red SoxBOS (-1.5) 0 YankeesNYY (+1.5)
New York Yankees (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Sox Cover

49.0%

Yankees Cover

51.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYY +0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)

BOS By 1-2 runs

18.6%

BOS By 3-4 runs

13.9%

NYY By 1-2 runs

18.3%

NYY By 3-4 runs

13.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4.1
BOSTON
Book Implied: 4.80
4
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3.20
Simulated Score
4
BOSTON
Book Implied: 4.80
5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Red Sox Loss
51% Win Prob
D
Sim Yankees Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Yankees (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +0.1
B
Sim Yankees (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.1
D
Sim o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 30, 2026 BOS @ NYY 2 - 9
Sep 29, 2026 BOS @ NYY 0 - 9
Aug 30, 2026 BOS @ NYY 1 - 16
Aug 29, 2026 BOS @ NYY 6 - 0
Aug 28, 2026 BOS @ NYY 0 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston BOS
vs
New York NYY
2 ▲
Games Played
1
1.00
Runs / Game
▲ 9.00
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲ .375
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .447
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .594
.409
OPS
▲ 1.041
2
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +26.5% more
Boston: 1.7 vs New York: 1.2
Hits (L5) +23.9% more
Boston: 7.5 vs New York: 5.7
Total Bases (L5) +17.3% more
Boston: 11.4 vs New York: 9.4
Runs per Game (Season) +800.0% more
New York: 9.0 vs Boston: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 4.1 1
NYY Score 4.0 16
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.2 / 1.7 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 5.7 / 7.5 18.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 0.8 5.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.8 / 8.1 7.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 9.4 / 11.4 33.0 / 9.0
Walks 3.2 / 2.9 1.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +112 / -120 → -141 / +131 ↓
53%TICKETS47%
46%MONEY54%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5 ↓
56%TICKETS44%
76%MONEY24%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 8
67%TICKETS33%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
BOS
NYY
BOS
ML
47% 76-85
50% 80-80
52% 85-77
47% 76-87
ATS
59% 95-66
58% 93-67
53% 86-76
48% 79-84
TTL
53% 81-73-7
46% 72-83-5
53% 82-72-7
47% 74-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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