HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
68-68 | Road
2
NEW YORK
METSNYM
61-75 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bennett Sousa
#62 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Nolan McLean
#26 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bennett Sousa | 1-3 | 6.27 | 1.82 | 18.2 | 21 |
| Nolan McLean | 9-8 | 3.21 | 1.14 | 148.2 | 168 |
1-3
W-L
9-8
6.27
ERA
Ldr 3.21
1.82
WHIP
Ldr 1.14
18.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 148.2
21
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 168
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
30%
METS
70%
▲ Edge: +10.20% (NYM)
ASTROS
42%
Book Odds: +138
METS
60%
Book Odds: -148
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.1
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.1 (Over)
Over 8.0
69%
Under 8.0
31%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.3
NEW YORK
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -2.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
HOU By 1-2 runs
12.7%
HOU By 3-4 runs
7.1%
NYM By 1-2 runs
19.4%
NYM By 3-4 runs
18.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
3.9
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 3.20
New York
6.2
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
Houston
3
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 3.20
New York
2
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mets
Win
70% Win Prob
A
Sim
Astros
Loss
60% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mets (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.3
D
Sim
Astros (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
o8.0
Push
Proj Total: 10.1
B
Sim
u8.0
Push
Proj Total: 5.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 30, 2026
HOU @ NYM
6 - 3
Aug 29, 2026
HOU @ NYM
2 - 6
Aug 28, 2026
HOU @ NYM
3 - 1
Mar 29, 2025
NYM @ HOU
1 - 2
Mar 28, 2025
NYM @ HOU
3 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
New York
NYM
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.31
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲
.239
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.310
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.395
.582
OPS
▲
.705
4
Home Runs
▲
204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+5000.0% more
New York: 204.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+43.7% more
New York: 4.3
vs
Houston: 3.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+15.7% more
New York: 10.5
vs
Houston: 9.1
OPS (Season)
+12.3%
New York: 70.5%
vs
Houston: 58.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
3.9
2
NYM Score
6.2
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.2
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.6 / 6.7
11.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
0.5 / 1.1
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
10.5 / 9.1
6.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
9.1 / 11.4
16.0 / 9.0
Walks
2.8 / 4.5
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -130 / +108
→
+138 / -148
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
8
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
HOU
NYM
HOU
ML
50%
79-80
50%
81-82
48%
76-83
47%
77-87
ATS
58%
93-66
56%
91-72
49%
78-81
55%
90-74
TTL
55%
80-66-13
45%
70-84-9
51%
74-72-13
45%
69-86-9
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