BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
74-61 | Road
6
NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
76-59 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Alec Gamboa
#68 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Max Fried
#54 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Gamboa | 1-0 | 1.31 | 0.97 | 20.2 | 14 |
| Max Fried | 4-4 | 2.81 | 1.00 | 86.1 | 79 |
1-0
W-L
4-4
1.31 Ldr
ERA
2.81
0.97 Ldr
WHIP
1.00
20.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 86.1
14
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 79
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
44%
YANKEES
56%
▲ Edge: +0.30% (BOS)
RED SOX
44%
Book Odds: +130
YANKEES
58%
Book Odds: -140
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.1
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.1 (Over)
Over 7.0
52%
Under 7.0
48%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.7
BOSTON
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS +0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
BOS By 1-2 runs
17.0%
BOS By 3-4 runs
11.5%
NYY By 1-2 runs
19.4%
NYY By 3-4 runs
15.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
3.2
BOSTON
Book Implied: 2.80
New York
3.9
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4.20
Simulated Score
Boston
2
BOSTON
Book Implied: 2.80
New York
3
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Yankees
Win
56% Win Prob
C
Sim
Yankees
Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +0.7
C
Sim
Red Sox (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.1
D
Sim
u7.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 30, 2026
BOS @ NYY
2 - 9
Sep 29, 2026
BOS @ NYY
0 - 9
Aug 30, 2026
BOS @ NYY
1 - 16
Aug 29, 2026
BOS @ NYY
6 - 0
Aug 28, 2026
BOS @ NYY
0 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
New York
NYY
2
▲
Games Played
1
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
9.00
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.375
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.447
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.594
.409
OPS
▲
1.041
2
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+800.0% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Boston: 1.0
Home Runs (L5)
+45.0% more
New York: 1.1
vs
Boston: 0.7
Slugging Pct (Season)
+34.4%
New York: 59.4%
vs
Boston: 25.0%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+28.8%
New York: 44.7%
vs
Boston: 15.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
3.2
6
NYY Score
3.9
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.3 / 1.5
1.0 / 2.0
Hits
6.5 / 6.7
4.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 0.7
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.2 / 7.6
8.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
11.6 / 10.6
5.0 / 13.0
Walks
3.3 / 4.4
3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +139 / -168
→
+130 / -140
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
7
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
BOS
NYY
BOS
ML
47%
76-85
50%
80-80
52%
85-77
47%
76-87
ATS
59%
95-66
58%
93-67
53%
86-76
48%
79-84
TTL
53%
81-73-7
46%
72-83-5
53%
82-72-7
47%
74-83-6
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