BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
73-61 | Road
0
NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
76-58 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Patrick Sandoval
#43 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Cam Schlittler
#31 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Sandoval | 1-2 | 4.54 | 1.76 | 39.2 | 41 |
| Cam Schlittler | 11-6 | 2.16 | 0.96 | 158.0 | 193 |
1-2
W-L
11-6
4.54
ERA
Ldr 2.16
1.76
WHIP
Ldr 0.96
39.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 158.0
41
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 193
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
32%
YANKEES
68%
▲ Edge: +7.70% (NYY)
RED SOX
41%
Book Odds: +142
YANKEES
60%
Book Odds: -152
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.6
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.6 (Over)
Over 7.0
66%
Under 7.0
34%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYY -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)
BOS By 1-2 runs
13.6%
BOS By 3-4 runs
7.8%
NYY By 1-2 runs
19.6%
NYY By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
3.3
BOSTON
Book Implied: 2.80
New York
5.3
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4.20
Simulated Score
Boston
3
BOSTON
Book Implied: 2.80
New York
5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Yankees
Win
68% Win Prob
A
Sim
Yankees
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Yankees (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Yankees (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.6
B
Sim
o7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 30, 2026
BOS @ NYY
2 - 9
Sep 29, 2026
BOS @ NYY
0 - 9
Aug 30, 2026
BOS @ NYY
1 - 16
Aug 29, 2026
BOS @ NYY
6 - 0
Aug 28, 2026
BOS @ NYY
0 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
New York
NYY
2
▲
Games Played
1
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
9.00
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.375
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.447
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.594
.409
OPS
▲
1.041
2
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+800.0% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Boston: 1.0
Slugging Pct (Season)
+34.4%
New York: 59.4%
vs
Boston: 25.0%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+28.8%
New York: 44.7%
vs
Boston: 15.9%
Batting Avg (Season)
+25.8%
New York: 37.5%
vs
Boston: 11.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
3.3
0
NYY Score
5.3
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.5 / 2.2
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.3 / 7.6
3.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.0
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.3 / 6.9
11.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
13.9 / 12.3
7.0 / 7.0
Walks
3.0 / 3.6
4.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +141 / -171
→
+142 / -152
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
7
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
BOS
NYY
BOS
ML
47%
76-85
50%
80-80
52%
85-77
47%
76-87
ATS
59%
95-66
58%
93-67
53%
86-76
48%
79-84
TTL
53%
81-73-7
46%
72-83-5
53%
82-72-7
47%
74-83-6
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