Home / MLB Projections MLB / Astros @ Mets HOU @ NYM

HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

68-67  |  Road

3
FINAL
Fri, Aug 28 • 7:10 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

60-75  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Hunter Brown
STARTING PITCHER

Hunter Brown

#58 | Starting Pitcher
@
Christian Scott
STARTING PITCHER

Christian Scott

#45 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Hunter Brown 3-3 3.51 1.33 74.1 76
Christian Scott 4-3 3.73 1.32 89.1 111
3-3 W-L 4-3
3.51 Ldr ERA 3.73
1.33 WHIP Ldr 1.32
74.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 89.1
76 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 111
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
50%
📊
METS
50%
ASTROS 51% Book Odds: -105
METS 51% Book Odds: -102
Book Implied: 51.20% / 50.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 (Over)
Over 7.5 68%
Under 7.5 32%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
NEW YORK
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (New York)
AstrosHOU (-1.5) 0 MetsNYM (+1.5)
New York Mets (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Astros Cover

49.0%

Mets Cover

51.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

HOU By 1-2 runs

18.3%

HOU By 3-4 runs

13.3%

NYM By 1-2 runs

18.6%

NYM By 3-4 runs

13.9%

AI Model Projected Score
4.7
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 4.50
4.8
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3
Simulated Score
5
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 4.50
3
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mets Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Astros Win
70% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mets (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.1
B
Sim Astros (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.5
B
Sim o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 30, 2026 HOU @ NYM 6 - 3
Aug 29, 2026 HOU @ NYM 2 - 6
Aug 28, 2026 HOU @ NYM 3 - 1
Mar 29, 2025 NYM @ HOU 1 - 2
Mar 28, 2025 NYM @ HOU 3 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston HOU
vs
New York NYM
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.31
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲ .239
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .310
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .395
.582
OPS
▲ .705
4
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +5000.0% more
New York: 204.0 vs Houston: 4.0
Runs per Game (Season) +43.7% more
New York: 4.3 vs Houston: 3.0
OPS (Season) +12.3%
New York: 70.5% vs Houston: 58.2%
On-Base Pct (Season) +8.1%
New York: 31.0% vs Houston: 22.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 4.7 3
NYM Score 4.8 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.3 / 8.1 5.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 1.7 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.8 / 9.7 14.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 10.7 / 15.0 6.0 / 4.0
Walks 3.7 / 3.8 1.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -126 / +104 → -105 / -102 ↑
65%TICKETS35%
92%MONEY8%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
72%TICKETS28%
72%MONEY28%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5 → 7.5
81%TICKETS19%
90%MONEY10%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU Advantage
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
HOU
NYM
HOU
ML
50% 79-80
50% 81-82
48% 76-83
47% 77-87
ATS
58% 93-66
56% 91-72
49% 78-81
55% 90-74
TTL
55% 80-66-13
45% 70-84-9
51% 74-72-13
45% 69-86-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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