ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
71-64 | Road
1
SAN FRANCISCO
GIANTSSF
55-79 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jose Cabrera
#53 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Landen Roupp
#65 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Cabrera | 0-2 | 5.60 | 1.53 | 17.2 | 12 |
| Landen Roupp | 7-13 | 4.34 | 1.31 | 134.2 | 130 |
0-2
W-L
7-13
5.60
ERA
Ldr 4.34
1.53
WHIP
Ldr 1.31
17.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 134.2
12
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 130
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
38%
GIANTS
62%
▲ Edge: +14.60% (SF)
DIAMONDBACKS
54%
Book Odds: -119
GIANTS
47%
Book Odds: +111
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.1
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.6 (Over)
Over 8.5
70%
Under 8.5
30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.8 points (San Francisco)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SF -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)
ARI By 1-2 runs
15.5%
ARI By 3-4 runs
9.8%
SF By 1-2 runs
19.7%
SF By 3-4 runs
17.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
4.4
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 5
San Francisco
5.7
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
Arizona
3
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 5
San Francisco
4
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Giants
Win
62% Win Prob
A
Sim
Giants
Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Giants (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.3
A
Sim
Giants (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.1
A
Sim
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 29, 2026
ARI @ SF
7 - 1
Aug 28, 2026
ARI @ SF
10 - 6
Aug 27, 2026
ARI @ SF
1 - 6
Jul 1, 2026
SF @ ARI
6 - 4
Jun 30, 2026
SF @ ARI
2 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
San Francisco
SF
162
Games Played
162
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
4.13
.246
▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.318
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.306
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.720
▲
OPS
.706
166
Home Runs
▲
178
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+92.0% more
San Francisco: 1.8
vs
Arizona: 0.8
Total Bases (L5)
+64.3% more
San Francisco: 17.2
vs
Arizona: 10.5
Errors (L5)
+64.0% more
San Francisco: 0.8
vs
Arizona: 0.2
Hits (L5)
+42.1% more
San Francisco: 9.5
vs
Arizona: 6.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
4.4
1
SF Score
5.7
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.5 / 6.7
7.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.8 / 0.8
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.2 / 6.5
6.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
17.2 / 10.5
11.0 / 9.0
Walks
2.9 / 2.7
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -114 / -106
→
-119 / +111
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0
(40.1%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
ARI
SF
ARI
ML
49%
79-81
54%
87-74
53%
85-75
54%
86-74
ATS
62%
100-60
57%
91-70
52%
83-77
56%
89-71
TTL
55%
82-68-10
52%
80-73-8
46%
68-81-11
49%
73-77-9
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