MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
83-51 | Road
8
NEW YORK
METSNYM
60-74 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jacob Misiorowski
#32 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Sean Manaea
#59 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Misiorowski | 13-5 | 1.68 | 0.76 | 145.0 | 216 |
| Sean Manaea | 4-5 | 4.31 | 1.31 | 117.0 | 117 |
13-5
W-L
4-5
1.68 Ldr
ERA
4.31
0.76 Ldr
WHIP
1.31
145.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
117.0
216 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
117
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
58%
METS
42%
▲ Edge: +6.40% (NYM)
BREWERS
66%
Book Odds: -198
METS
35%
Book Odds: +184
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.4
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.4 (Over)
Over 7.0
73%
Under 7.0
27%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYM +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
MIL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
MIL By 3-4 runs
16.3%
NYM By 1-2 runs
16.3%
NYM By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
5.2
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 4.20
New York
4.2
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 2.80
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
2
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 4.20
New York
5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 2.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Brewers
Win
58% Win Prob
C
Sim
Mets
Loss
77% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mets (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Sim
Mets (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.4
A
Sim
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 27, 2026
MIL @ NYM
8 - 2
Aug 26, 2026
MIL @ NYM
8 - 1
Aug 25, 2026
MIL @ NYM
2 - 3
Jul 22, 2026
NYM @ MIL
3 - 4
Jul 21, 2026
NYM @ MIL
4 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee
MIL
vs
New York
NYM
162
Games Played
162
5.14
▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.341
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.403
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.743
▲
OPS
.705
154
Home Runs
▲
204
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+41.0% more
Milwaukee: 0.5
vs
New York: 0.1
Runs per Game (Season)
+16.1% more
Milwaukee: 5.1
vs
New York: 4.3
Hits (L5)
+12.0% more
Milwaukee: 10.8
vs
New York: 9.5
OPS (Season)
+3.8%
Milwaukee: 74.3%
vs
New York: 70.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
5.2
8
NYM Score
4.2
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.5
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.5 / 10.8
3.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 0.6
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.7 / 7.5
9.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
14.0 / 14.5
4.0 / 21.0
Walks
4.0 / 2.9
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -163 / +135
→
-198 / +184
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
7
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
MIL
NYM
MIL
ML
50%
79-80
62%
101-61
48%
76-83
52%
84-78
ATS
58%
93-66
58%
94-68
49%
78-81
48%
78-84
TTL
55%
80-66-13
40%
62-92-8
51%
74-72-13
50%
77-77-8
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