HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
67-67 | Road
5
NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
75-58 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Hayden Wesneski
#39 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Gerrit Cole
#45 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hayden Wesneski | 3-1 | 4.23 | 1.23 | 27.2 | 22 |
| Gerrit Cole | 7-6 | 3.11 | 1.07 | 92.2 | 100 |
3-1
W-L
7-6
4.23
ERA
Ldr 3.11
1.23
WHIP
Ldr 1.07
27.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 92.2
22
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 100
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
48%
YANKEES
52%
▲ Edge: +6.50% (HOU)
ASTROS
41%
Book Odds: +142
YANKEES
61%
Book Odds: -153
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.9
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.9 (Over)
Over 8.0
60%
Under 8.0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.3
HOUSTON
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around HOU +0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
HOU By 1-2 runs
17.9%
HOU By 3-4 runs
12.7%
NYY By 1-2 runs
18.9%
NYY By 3-4 runs
14.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
4.3
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 3.20
New York
4.6
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
Houston
4
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 3.20
New York
5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Yankees
Loss
52% Win Prob
C
Sim
Yankees
Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Astros (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +0.3
C
Sim
Astros (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.9
C
Sim
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 27, 2026
HOU @ NYY
5 - 1
Aug 26, 2026
HOU @ NYY
3 - 9
Aug 25, 2026
HOU @ NYY
9 - 7
Apr 26, 2026
NYY @ HOU
4 - 7
Apr 25, 2026
NYY @ HOU
8 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
New York
NYY
2
▲
Games Played
1
3.00
Runs / Game
▲
9.00
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲
.375
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.447
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.594
.582
OPS
▲
1.041
4
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+200.0% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Houston: 3.0
Errors (L5)
+70.0% more
New York: 1.2
vs
Houston: 0.5
Hits (L5)
+29.8% more
New York: 9.9
vs
Houston: 7.7
Slugging Pct (Season)
+24.0%
New York: 59.4%
vs
Houston: 35.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
4.3
5
NYY Score
4.6
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.2 / 0.5
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.9 / 7.7
5.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.7 / 1.5
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.4 / 9.0
8.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
16.9 / 14.6
8.0 / 16.0
Walks
3.5 / 4.7
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +119 / -143
→
+142 / -153
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 9
→
8
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
HOU
NYY
HOU
ML
47%
76-85
50%
81-82
52%
85-77
47%
77-87
ATS
59%
95-66
56%
91-72
53%
86-76
55%
90-74
TTL
53%
81-73-7
45%
70-84-9
53%
82-72-7
45%
69-86-9
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