BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
65-68 | Road
8
ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
66-68 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kyle Bradish
#38 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Michael McGreevy
#36 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Bradish | 7-12 | 3.70 | 1.38 | 138.2 | 129 |
| Michael McGreevy | 5-9 | 3.54 | 1.21 | 137.1 | 95 |
7-12
W-L
5-9
3.70
ERA
Ldr 3.54
1.38
WHIP
Ldr 1.21
138.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
137.1
129 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
95
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
58%
CARDINALS
42%
▲ Edge: +6.60% (BAL)
ORIOLES
52%
Book Odds: -106
CARDINALS
50%
Book Odds: -101
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.9
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.6 (Under)
Over 8.5
45%
Under 8.5
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.9
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (St. Louis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around STL +0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.5%
BAL By 3-4 runs
16.1%
STL By 1-2 runs
16.6%
STL By 3-4 runs
10.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
4.4
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 5
St. Louis
3.5
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
Baltimore
3
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 5
St. Louis
4
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Orioles
Win
58% Win Prob
B
Sim
Cardinals
Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +0.9
C
Sim
Cardinals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.9
C
Sim
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 27, 2026
BAL @ STL
5 - 7
Aug 26, 2026
BAL @ STL
8 - 7
Aug 25, 2026
BAL @ STL
13 - 1
May 28, 2025
STL @ BAL
6 - 4
May 27, 2025
STL @ BAL
7 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
St. Louis
STL
161
Games Played
▲
162
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲
.239
.314
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.396
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.711
▲
OPS
.691
199
▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+27.3% more
Baltimore: 1.5
vs
St. Louis: 1.1
Total Bases (L5)
+19.9% more
Baltimore: 15.8
vs
St. Louis: 12.7
Home Runs (Season)
+16.1% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
St. Louis: 167.0
OPS (Season)
+2.0%
Baltimore: 71.1%
vs
St. Louis: 69.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
4.4
8
STL Score
3.5
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.4 / 9.0
11.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 1.5
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
10.7 / 8.6
7.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
12.7 / 15.8
16.0 / 22.0
Walks
1.9 / 0.9
5.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +109 / -131
→
-106 / -101
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
↓
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
Advantage
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
BAL
STL
BAL
ML
53%
85-74
53%
83-73
52%
84-77
57%
90-69
ATS
56%
89-70
61%
95-60-1
53%
85-76
57%
90-68-1
TTL
46%
68-81-10
54%
81-70-5
50%
76-75-10
51%
78-75-6
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