Home / MLB Projections MLB / Brewers @ Mets MIL @ NYM

MILWAUKEE

BREWERSMIL

82-51  |  Road

8
FINAL
Wed, Aug 26 • 7:10 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

60-73  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Dustin May
STARTING PITCHER

Dustin May

#21 | Starting Pitcher
@
Robert Stock
STARTING PITCHER

Robert Stock

#89 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Dustin May 6-8 4.57 1.30 124.0 118
Robert Stock 0-2 5.40 1.68 16.2 19
6-8 W-L 0-2
4.57 Ldr ERA 5.40
1.30 Ldr WHIP 1.68
124.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 16.2
118 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 19
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
51%
📊
METS
49%
▲ Edge: +8% (NYM)
BREWERS 61% Book Odds: -154
METS 41% Book Odds: +144
Book Implied: 60.60% / 41%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.1
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 (Over)
Over 8.5 65%
Under 8.5 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.1
NEW YORK
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (New York)
BrewersMIL (-1.5) 0 MetsNYM (+1.5)
New York Mets (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Brewers Cover

49.0%

Mets Cover

51.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYM +0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

MIL By 1-2 runs

18.6%

MIL By 3-4 runs

13.9%

NYM By 1-2 runs

18.3%

NYM By 3-4 runs

13.3%

AI Model Projected Score
5.1
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 5
5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
6
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 5
3
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Brewers Win
51% Win Prob
D
Sim Brewers Win
77% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mets (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +0.1
B
Sim Brewers (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.1
C
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 27, 2026 MIL @ NYM 8 - 2
Aug 26, 2026 MIL @ NYM 8 - 1
Aug 25, 2026 MIL @ NYM 2 - 3
Jul 22, 2026 NYM @ MIL 3 - 4
Jul 21, 2026 NYM @ MIL 4 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee MIL
vs
New York NYM
162
Games Played
162
5.14 ▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.258 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.341 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.403 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.743 ▲
OPS
.705
154
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +61.0% more
Milwaukee: 0.7 vs New York: 0.1
Runs per Game (Season) +16.1% more
Milwaukee: 5.1 vs New York: 4.3
OPS (Season) +3.8%
Milwaukee: 74.3% vs New York: 70.5%
On-Base Pct (Season) +3.1%
Milwaukee: 34.1% vs New York: 31.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIL Score 5.1 8
NYM Score 5.0 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.7 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.8 / 9.7 9.0 / 13.0
Home Runs 1.7 / 0.4 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 10.0 / 7.2 6.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 16.5 / 13.3 9.0 / 17.0
Walks 3.5 / 3.3 5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -167 / +138 → -154 / +144 ↓
75%TICKETS25%
89%MONEY11%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
81%TICKETS19%
72%MONEY28%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5 → 8.5 ↑
14%TICKETS86%
24%MONEY76%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL Advantage
106-60-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7% Total +/-: +0.8
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
MIL
NYM
MIL
ML
50% 79-80
62% 101-61
48% 76-83
52% 84-78
ATS
58% 93-66
58% 94-68
49% 78-81
48% 78-84
TTL
55% 80-66-13
40% 62-92-8
51% 74-72-13
50% 77-77-8
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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