Home / MLB Projections MLB / Astros @ Yankees HOU @ NYY

HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

66-67  |  Road

3
FINAL
Wed, Aug 26 • 7:05 PM ET
Yankee Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

75-57  |  Home

9
Probable Pitchers
Peter Lambert
STARTING PITCHER

Peter Lambert

#38 | Starting Pitcher
@
Elmer Rodriguez
STARTING PITCHER

Elmer Rodriguez

#71 | SP
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Peter Lambert 8-7 3.68 1.20 122.1 120
Elmer Rodriguez 0-2 4.76 1.76 17.0 10
8-7 W-L 0-2
3.68 Ldr ERA 4.76
1.20 Ldr WHIP 1.76
122.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 17.0
120 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 10
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
57%
📊
YANKEES
43%
▲ Edge: +9% (HOU)
ASTROS 48% Book Odds: +108
YANKEES 54% Book Odds: -116
Book Implied: 48.10% / 53.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.6 (Under)
Over 9.0 45%
Under 9.0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
HOUSTON
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.3 points (Houston)
AstrosHOU (+1.5) 0 YankeesNYY (-1.5)
Houston Astros (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Astros Cover

57.9%

Yankees Cover

42.1%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around HOU -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

HOU By 1-2 runs

19.4%

HOU By 3-4 runs

15.8%

NYY By 1-2 runs

16.8%

NYY By 3-4 runs

11.2%

AI Model Projected Score
4.6
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 3.80
3.8
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 5.20
Simulated Score
3
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 3.80
5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 5.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Astros Loss
57% Win Prob
B
Sim Yankees Win
69% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Astros (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.8
A
Sim Yankees (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 8.4
C
Sim u9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 27, 2026 HOU @ NYY 5 - 1
Aug 26, 2026 HOU @ NYY 3 - 9
Aug 25, 2026 HOU @ NYY 9 - 7
Apr 26, 2026 NYY @ HOU 4 - 7
Apr 25, 2026 NYY @ HOU 8 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston HOU
vs
New York NYY
2 ▲
Games Played
1
3.00
Runs / Game
▲ 9.00
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲ .375
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .447
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .594
.582
OPS
▲ 1.041
4 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +17.3% more
Houston: 4.6 vs New York: 3.8
Strikeouts (L5) +14.8% more
Houston: 9.0 vs New York: 7.7
Total Bases (L5) +14.8% more
Houston: 17.3 vs New York: 14.8
Hits (L5) +11.5% more
Houston: 9.5 vs New York: 8.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 4.6 3
NYY Score 3.8 9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.4 / 0.3 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.4 / 9.5 13.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 1.6 / 1.8 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.7 / 9.0 10.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 14.8 / 17.3 21.0 / 9.0
Walks 3.8 / 4.6 3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +123 / -149 → +108 / -116 ↓
33%TICKETS67%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
31%TICKETS69%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: 9 → 9
86%TICKETS14%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
HOU
NYY
HOU
ML
47% 76-85
50% 81-82
52% 85-77
47% 77-87
ATS
59% 95-66
56% 91-72
53% 86-76
55% 90-74
TTL
53% 81-73-7
45% 70-84-9
53% 82-72-7
45% 69-86-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
yahoo 0 minutes ago
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
si 0 minutes ago
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
yahoo 5 hours, 44 minutes ago
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …
yahoo 5 hours, 54 minutes ago
Yankees' Faithful Boo as Another Season Ends in Disappointment: …
bleacherreport 5 hours, 59 minutes ago