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BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

73-60  |  Road

0
FINAL
Wed, Aug 26 • 6:40 PM ET
loanDepot park
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

68-66  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Sonny Gray
STARTING PITCHER

Sonny Gray

#54 | Starting Pitcher
@
Ryan Gusto
STARTING PITCHER

Ryan Gusto

#65 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Sonny Gray 16-3 2.79 1.16 138.2 123
Ryan Gusto 0-3 4.37 1.34 57.2 51
16-3 W-L 0-3
2.79 Ldr ERA 4.37
1.16 Ldr WHIP 1.34
138.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 57.2
123 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 51
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
57%
📊
MARLINS
43%
▲ Edge: +1.40% (BOS)
RED SOX 55% Book Odds: -124
MARLINS 47% Book Odds: +115
Book Implied: 55.40% / 46.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.4
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.1 (Under)
Over 7.5 50%
Under 7.5 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.8
MIAMI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Miami)
Red SoxBOS (-1.5) 0 MarlinsMIA (+1.5)
Miami Marlins (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Sox Cover

42.1%

Marlins Cover

57.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIA +0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

BOS By 1-2 runs

19.4%

BOS By 3-4 runs

15.8%

MIA By 1-2 runs

16.8%

MIA By 3-4 runs

11.2%

AI Model Projected Score
4.1
BOSTON
Book Implied: 4.50
3.3
MIAMI
Book Implied: 3
Simulated Score
3
BOSTON
Book Implied: 4.50
5
MIAMI
Book Implied: 3
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Red Sox Loss
57% Win Prob
C
Sim Marlins Win
69% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Marlins (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +0.8
C
Sim Marlins (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u7.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.4
D
Sim o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 26, 2026 BOS @ MIA 0 - 4
Aug 25, 2026 BOS @ MIA 7 - 3
Aug 24, 2026 BOS @ MIA 4 - 2
Aug 17, 2025 MIA @ BOS 5 - 3
Aug 16, 2025 MIA @ BOS 5 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston BOS
vs
Miami MIA
2
Games Played
▲ 162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.41
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲ .249
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .326
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .400
.409
OPS
▲ .727
2
Home Runs
▲ 168
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +79.1% more
Boston: 1.3 vs Miami: 0.3
Home Runs (L5) +54.1% more
Boston: 1.5 vs Miami: 0.7
Total Bases (L5) +29.8% more
Boston: 16.0 vs Miami: 11.2
Hits (L5) +13.5% more
Boston: 8.9 vs Miami: 7.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 4.1 0
MIA Score 3.3 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 1.3 0.0 / 4.0
Hits 7.7 / 8.9 10.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 1.5 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.3 / 8.3 8.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 11.2 / 16.0 11.0 / 5.0
Walks 5.1 / 3.9 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -163 / +135 → -124 / +115 ↑
78%TICKETS22%
94%MONEY6%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
86%TICKETS14%
73%MONEY27%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5 → 7.5
87%TICKETS13%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
MIA
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
MIA Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
BOS
MIA
BOS
ML
48% 78-84
50% 80-80
55% 88-72
47% 76-87
ATS
56% 91-71
58% 93-67
54% 86-74
48% 79-84
TTL
56% 88-69-5
46% 72-83-5
53% 82-73-5
47% 74-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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