PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
65-70 | Road
0
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
72-62 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bubba Chandler
#36 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Randy Vasquez
#98 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bubba Chandler | 6-8 | 4.38 | 1.37 | 125.1 | 114 |
| Randy Vasquez | 9-6 | 4.19 | 1.31 | 118.0 | 74 |
6-8
W-L
9-6
4.38
ERA
Ldr 4.19
1.37
WHIP
Ldr 1.31
125.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
118.0
114 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
74
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
41%
PADRES
59%
▲ Edge: +2.10% (SD)
PIRATES
44%
Book Odds: +126
PADRES
57%
Book Odds: -135
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.2
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.7 (Over)
Over 8.5
57%
Under 8.5
43%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PIT +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
PIT By 1-2 runs
16.3%
PIT By 3-4 runs
10.6%
SD By 1-2 runs
19.6%
SD By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
4.1
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 3.50
San Diego
5.1
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 3.50
San Diego
5
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Padres
Win
59% Win Prob
B
Sim
Padres
Win
69% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pirates (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim
Padres (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.2
C
Sim
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 26, 2026
PIT @ SD
0 - 3
Aug 25, 2026
PIT @ SD
1 - 0
Aug 24, 2026
PIT @ SD
3 - 2
Apr 8, 2026
SD @ PIT
8 - 2
Apr 7, 2026
SD @ PIT
1 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
San Diego
SD
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.73
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.253
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.330
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.404
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.734
OPS
▲
.925
186
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+26.8% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 4.7
OPS (Season)
+19.1%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Pittsburgh: 73.4%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+15.9%
San Diego: 56.3%
vs
Pittsburgh: 40.4%
Walks (L5)
+8.7% more
San Diego: 3.6
vs
Pittsburgh: 3.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
4.1
0
SD Score
5.1
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.3
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
6.4 / 6.4
7.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 0.8
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.7 / 9.9
7.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
10.3 / 10.1
11.0 / 5.0
Walks
3.6 / 3.3
4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +101 / -121
→
+126 / -135
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
8.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
PIT
SD
PIT
ML
51%
85-83
52%
82-77
51%
85-82
52%
85-78
ATS
54%
91-77
54%
86-73
55%
92-75
50%
81-82
TTL
51%
82-80-6
47%
72-81-6
54%
86-74-6
50%
79-78-6
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