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TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

79-54  |  Road

3
FINAL
Wed, Aug 26 • 1:10 PM ET
Comerica Park
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

TIGERSDET

62-71  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Freddy Peralta
STARTING PITCHER

Freddy Peralta

#51 | Starting Pitcher
@
Troy Melton
STARTING PITCHER

Troy Melton

#52 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Freddy Peralta 5-11 5.33 1.46 135.0 129
Troy Melton 7-2 1.60 1.00 90.0 76
5-11 W-L 7-2
5.33 ERA Ldr 1.60
1.46 WHIP Ldr 1.00
135.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 90.0
129 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 76
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
18%
📊
TIGERS
82%
▲ Edge: +29.90% (DET)
RAYS 49% Book Odds: +103
TIGERS 52% Book Odds: -110
Book Implied: 49.30% / 52.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.1
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 (Over)
Over 7.5 68%
Under 7.5 33%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.1
DETROIT
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.6 points (Detroit)
RaysTB (-1.5) 0 TigersDET (+1.5)
Detroit Tigers (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rays Cover

15.3%

Tigers Cover

84.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET -4.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

TB By 1-2 runs

7.6%

TB By 3-4 runs

3.4%

DET By 1-2 runs

16.1%

DET By 3-4 runs

19.5%

AI Model Projected Score
2.5
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.50
6.6
DETROIT
Book Implied: 3
Simulated Score
3
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.50
5
DETROIT
Book Implied: 3
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Tigers Loss
82% Win Prob
A
Sim Tigers Loss
69% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Tigers (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -4.1
A
Sim Tigers (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.1
B
Sim o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 26, 2026 TB @ DET 3 - 0
Aug 25, 2026 TB @ DET 1 - 4
Aug 24, 2026 TB @ DET 4 - 1
Jun 3, 2026 DET @ TB 7 - 2
Jun 2, 2026 DET @ TB 8 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay TB
vs
Detroit DET
162
Games Played
162
4.54 ▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.258 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.241
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.320
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.728 ▲
OPS
.720
169
Home Runs
▲ 181
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +19.0% more
Detroit: 0.7 vs Tampa Bay: 0.5
Total Bases (L5) +17.4% more
Detroit: 11.4 vs Tampa Bay: 9.7
Home Runs (Season) +7.1% more
Detroit: 181.0 vs Tampa Bay: 169.0
Errors (L5) +30.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.7 vs Detroit: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 2.5 3
DET Score 6.6 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.7 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.0 / 7.1 2.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 6.2 / 7.2 4.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 11.4 / 9.7 2.0 / 10.0
Walks 2.7 / 2.9 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -136 / +113 → +103 / -110 ↑
38%TICKETS62%
46%MONEY54%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
22%TICKETS78%
22%MONEY78%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5 → 7.5
67%TICKETS33%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
DET
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
TB
DET
TB
ML
54% 86-73
58% 95-68
54% 87-73
58% 95-68
ATS
64% 101-58
60% 97-66
57% 91-69
55% 90-73
TTL
46% 69-81-9
47% 73-81-9
46% 69-81-10
51% 78-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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