PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
73-60 | Road
1
SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
64-69 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Aaron Nola
#27 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
George Kirby
#68 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | 5-9 | 5.12 | 1.42 | 137.0 | 146 |
| George Kirby | 8-10 | 4.18 | 1.36 | 140.0 | 117 |
5-9
W-L
8-10
5.12
ERA
Ldr 4.18
1.42
WHIP
Ldr 1.36
137.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 140.0
146 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
117
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
46%
MARINERS
54%
▲ Edge: +1.30% (SEA)
PHILLIES
49%
Book Odds: +103
MARINERS
53%
Book Odds: -111
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.8
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.8 (Over)
Over 8.0
67%
Under 8.0
33%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
SEATTLE
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 points (Seattle)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SEA -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)
PHI By 1-2 runs
17.7%
PHI By 3-4 runs
12.4%
SEA By 1-2 runs
19.0%
SEA By 3-4 runs
14.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
4.7
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 4.80
Seattle
5.1
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 3.20
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
3
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 4.80
Seattle
5
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 3.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mariners
Win
54% Win Prob
C
Sim
Mariners
Win
69% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Mariners (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.4
B
Sim
Mariners (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.8
B
Sim
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 26, 2026
PHI @ SEA
6 - 0
Aug 25, 2026
PHI @ SEA
1 - 4
Aug 24, 2026
PHI @ SEA
2 - 9
Aug 20, 2025
SEA @ PHI
2 - 11
Aug 19, 2025
SEA @ PHI
4 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Seattle
SEA
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.10
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.314
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.379
.724
▲
OPS
.693
3
Home Runs
▲
182
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+5966.7% more
Seattle: 182.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Home Runs (L5)
+138.0% more
Seattle: 2.4
vs
Philadelphia: 1.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+54.1% more
Seattle: 10.4
vs
Philadelphia: 6.8
Walks (L5)
+49.6% more
Seattle: 3.9
vs
Philadelphia: 2.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
4.7
1
SEA Score
5.1
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.4 / 9.0
5.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
2.4 / 1.0
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
10.4 / 6.8
11.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
16.2 / 14.2
8.0 / 6.0
Walks
3.9 / 2.6
3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +100 / -120
→
+103 / -111
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
8
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
Advantage
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
PHI
SEA
PHI
ML
50%
81-81
59%
97-67
52%
85-77
49%
80-84
ATS
60%
98-64
65%
107-57
59%
95-67
51%
83-81
TTL
56%
85-67-10
57%
88-67-9
53%
81-71-10
51%
78-76-9
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