BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
64-68 | Road
13
ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
66-67 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Chris Bassitt
#40 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Matthew Liberatore
#32 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Bassitt | 4-4 | 5.08 | 1.62 | 67.1 | 46 |
| Matthew Liberatore | 5-11 | 5.04 | 1.44 | 125.0 | 125 |
4-4
W-L
5-11
5.08
ERA
Ldr 5.04
1.62
WHIP
Ldr 1.44
67.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 125.0
46
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 125
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
51%
CARDINALS
49%
▲ Edge: +3.60% (BAL)
ORIOLES
47%
Book Odds: +111
CARDINALS
54%
Book Odds: -119
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.1
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.1 (Over)
Over 8.0
52%
Under 8.0
48%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BAL -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
BAL By 1-2 runs
18.6%
BAL By 3-4 runs
13.9%
STL By 1-2 runs
18.3%
STL By 3-4 runs
13.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
4.1
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 3.20
St. Louis
4
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
Baltimore
5
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 3.20
St. Louis
4
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Orioles
Win
51% Win Prob
D
Sim
Orioles
Win
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Orioles (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.1
B
Sim
Orioles (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.1
D
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 27, 2026
BAL @ STL
5 - 7
Aug 26, 2026
BAL @ STL
8 - 7
Aug 25, 2026
BAL @ STL
13 - 1
May 28, 2025
STL @ BAL
6 - 4
May 27, 2025
STL @ BAL
7 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
St. Louis
STL
161
Games Played
▲
162
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲
.239
.314
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.396
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.711
▲
OPS
.691
199
▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+16.1% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
St. Louis: 167.0
Home Runs (L5)
+10.7% more
Baltimore: 1.3
vs
St. Louis: 1.2
OPS (Season)
+2.0%
Baltimore: 71.1%
vs
St. Louis: 69.1%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+1.8%
Baltimore: 39.6%
vs
St. Louis: 37.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
4.1
13
STL Score
4.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.2
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.1 / 5.6
7.0 / 16.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.3
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
9.6 / 7.9
13.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
14.0 / 10.7
10.0 / 26.0
Walks
1.8 / 1.3
2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +104 / -126
→
+111 / -119
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
Advantage
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
BAL
STL
BAL
ML
53%
85-74
53%
83-73
52%
84-77
57%
90-69
ATS
56%
89-70
61%
95-60-1
53%
85-76
57%
90-68-1
TTL
46%
68-81-10
54%
81-70-5
50%
76-75-10
51%
78-75-6
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