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LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

80-52  |  Road

3
FINAL
Tue, Aug 25 • 7:15 PM ET
Truist Park
View Odds Details →

ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

77-55  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Tyler Glasnow
STARTING PITCHER

Tyler Glasnow

#31 | Starting Pitcher
@
Bryce Elder
STARTING PITCHER

Bryce Elder

#55 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tyler Glasnow 3-0 2.72 0.83 39.2 49
Bryce Elder 8-7 3.92 1.23 137.2 113
3-0 W-L 8-7
2.72 Ldr ERA 3.92
0.83 Ldr WHIP 1.23
39.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 137.2
49 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 113
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
70%
📊
BRAVES
30%
▲ Edge: +9.50% (LAD)
DODGERS 61% Book Odds: -153
BRAVES 41% Book Odds: +142
Book Implied: 60.50% / 41.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.9
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.6 (Under)
Over 8.5 46%
Under 8.5 54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.3
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Los Angeles)
DodgersLAD (-1.5) 0 BravesATL (+1.5)
Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dodgers Cover

71.7%

Braves Cover

28.3%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAD -2.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

LAD By 1-2 runs

19.4%

LAD By 3-4 runs

18.9%

ATL By 1-2 runs

12.7%

ATL By 3-4 runs

7.1%

AI Model Projected Score
5.1
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 5
2.8
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
5
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 5
4
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dodgers Loss
70% Win Prob
A
Sim Dodgers Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Dodgers (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.3
C
Sim Braves (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.9
C
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 7, 2026 LAD @ ATL 4 - 1
Oct 6, 2026 LAD @ ATL 3 - 1
Oct 4, 2026 ATL @ LAD 3 - 2
Oct 3, 2026 ATL @ LAD 3 - 5
Aug 27, 2026 LAD @ ATL 0 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAD
vs
Atlanta ATL
162 ▲
Games Played
1
4.94
Runs / Game
▲ 5.00
.257 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.338 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.324
.424
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .433
.762 ▲
OPS
.757
204 ▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +99.5% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs Atlanta: 1.0
Walks (L5) +30.1% more
Los Angeles: 4.3 vs Atlanta: 3.0
Home Runs (L5) +22.0% more
Los Angeles: 0.7 vs Atlanta: 0.4
Strikeouts (L5) +10.5% more
Los Angeles: 9.0 vs Atlanta: 8.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAD Score 5.1 3
ATL Score 2.8 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.1 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.5 / 7.4 9.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 0.4 / 0.7 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.1 / 9.0 8.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 11.4 / 10.7 10.0 / 12.0
Walks 3.0 / 4.3 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -163 / +135 → -153 / +142 ↓
74%TICKETS26%
69%MONEY31%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
61%TICKETS39%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 8.5 ↑
92%TICKETS8%
90%MONEY10%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
ATL
97-72-0 (57.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
ATL Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
LAD
ATL
LAD
ML
46% 77-90
56% 92-73
54% 90-78
48% 79-87
ATS
57% 96-71
59% 98-67
52% 87-81
43% 72-94
TTL
53% 83-73-11
48% 77-82-6
49% 76-80-11
44% 70-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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