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KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

59-74  |  Road

5
FINAL
Tue, Aug 25 • 7:07 PM ET
Rogers Centre
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

64-69  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Seth Lugo
STARTING PITCHER

Seth Lugo

#67 | Starting Pitcher
@
Max Scherzer
STARTING PITCHER

Max Scherzer

#31 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Seth Lugo 5-7 4.71 1.38 145.1 111
Max Scherzer 1-6 7.40 1.51 45.0 32
5-7 W-L 1-6
4.71 Ldr ERA 7.40
1.38 Ldr WHIP 1.51
145.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 45.0
111 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 32
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
40%
📊
BLUE JAYS
60%
▲ Edge: +3.30% (TOR)
ROYALS 46% Book Odds: +120
BLUE JAYS 56% Book Odds: -129
Book Implied: 45.50% / 56.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.8
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.8 (Over)
Over 8.0 75%
Under 8.0 25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Kansas City)
RoyalsKC (+1.5) 0 Blue JaysTOR (-1.5)
Kansas City Royals (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

59.9%

Blue Jays Cover

40.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

KC By 1-2 runs

16.3%

KC By 3-4 runs

10.6%

TOR By 1-2 runs

19.6%

TOR By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4.9
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 3.20
5.9
TORONTO
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
4
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 3.20
3
TORONTO
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Blue Jays Loss
60% Win Prob
B
Sim Royals Win
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Royals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim Royals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI o8.0 Push
Proj Total: 10.8
A
Sim u8.0 Push
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2026 TOR @ KC 1 - 6
Sep 5, 2026 TOR @ KC 4 - 3
Sep 4, 2026 TOR @ KC 9 - 2
Aug 27, 2026 KC @ TOR 13 - 2
Aug 26, 2026 KC @ TOR 0 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Toronto TOR
162
Games Played
162
4.26 ▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.247
Avg (AVG)
.247
.316 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.718 ▲
OPS
.692
170 ▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +15.9% more
Toronto: 8.0 vs Kansas City: 6.9
Home Runs (L5) +59.3% more
Kansas City: 1.8 vs Toronto: 0.7
Errors (L5) +23.0% more
Kansas City: 0.3 vs Toronto: 0.1
Total Bases (L5) +13.1% more
Kansas City: 17.3 vs Toronto: 15.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 4.9 5
TOR Score 5.9 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.3 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 9.6 / 9.6 10.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 1.8 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.0 / 6.9 7.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 15.0 / 17.3 12.0 / 10.0
Walks 3.1 / 3.0 2.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +100 / -120 → +120 / -129 ↑
35%TICKETS65%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5 ↑
48%TICKETS52%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 8 ↓
91%TICKETS9%
93%MONEY7%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
TOR Advantage
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
KC
TOR
KC
ML
46% 74-87
55% 89-72
50% 80-80
56% 90-70
ATS
56% 90-71
57% 91-70
49% 79-81
58% 93-67
TTL
51% 80-76-5
58% 90-64-7
45% 70-85-5
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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