HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
66-66 | Road
9
NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
74-57 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Ethan Pecko
#70 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Will Warren
#29 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethan Pecko | 0-0 | 4.91 | 1.64 | 3.2 | 4 |
| Will Warren | 8-6 | 4.43 | 1.40 | 122.0 | 122 |
0-0
W-L
8-6
4.91
ERA
Ldr 4.43
1.64
WHIP
Ldr 1.40
3.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 122.0
4
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 122
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
43%
YANKEES
57%
▲ Edge: +0.10% (HOU)
ASTROS
43%
Book Odds: +131
YANKEES
58%
Book Odds: -140
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.6
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.1 (Over)
Over 8.5
52%
Under 8.5
48%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.8
HOUSTON
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around HOU +0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
HOU By 1-2 runs
16.8%
HOU By 3-4 runs
11.2%
NYY By 1-2 runs
19.4%
NYY By 3-4 runs
15.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
3.9
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 3.50
New York
4.7
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
Houston
4
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 3.50
New York
5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Yankees
Loss
57% Win Prob
C
Sim
Yankees
Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Astros (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +0.8
C
Sim
Astros (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.6
D
Sim
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 27, 2026
HOU @ NYY
5 - 1
Aug 26, 2026
HOU @ NYY
3 - 9
Aug 25, 2026
HOU @ NYY
9 - 7
Apr 26, 2026
NYY @ HOU
4 - 7
Apr 25, 2026
NYY @ HOU
8 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
New York
NYY
2
▲
Games Played
1
3.00
Runs / Game
▲
9.00
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲
.375
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.447
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.594
.582
OPS
▲
1.041
4
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+200.0% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Houston: 3.0
Errors (L5)
+56.0% more
New York: 1.0
vs
Houston: 0.5
Home Runs (L5)
+24.8% more
New York: 1.4
vs
Houston: 1.1
Slugging Pct (Season)
+24.0%
New York: 59.4%
vs
Houston: 35.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
3.9
9
NYY Score
4.7
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.0 / 0.5
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.6 / 7.3
10.0 / 14.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 1.1
2.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
10.0 / 9.0
3.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
13.2 / 12.5
18.0 / 27.0
Walks
3.2 / 4.8
5.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +121 / -146
→
+131 / -140
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 9
→
8.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
HOU
NYY
HOU
ML
47%
76-85
50%
81-82
52%
85-77
47%
77-87
ATS
59%
95-66
56%
91-72
53%
86-76
55%
90-74
TTL
53%
81-73-7
45%
70-84-9
53%
82-72-7
45%
69-86-9
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