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TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

78-54  |  Road

1
FINAL
Tue, Aug 25 • 6:40 PM ET
Comerica Park
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

TIGERSDET

62-70  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Casey Legumina
STARTING PITCHER

Casey Legumina

#67 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jackson Jobe
STARTING PITCHER

Jackson Jobe

#21 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Casey Legumina 2-2 3.99 1.26 56.1 43
Jackson Jobe 1-1 4.50 1.36 14.0 11
2-2 W-L 1-1
3.99 Ldr ERA 4.50
1.26 Ldr WHIP 1.36
56.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 14.0
43 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 11
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
34%
📊
TIGERS
66%
▲ Edge: +20.10% (DET)
RAYS 55% Book Odds: -124
TIGERS 46% Book Odds: +116
Book Implied: 55.40% / 46.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.7
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 (Over)
Over 8.0 66%
Under 8.0 34%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.9
DETROIT
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.4 points (Detroit)
RaysTB (-1.5) 0 TigersDET (+1.5)
Detroit Tigers (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rays Cover

31.7%

Tigers Cover

68.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET -1.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

TB By 1-2 runs

13.9%

TB By 3-4 runs

8.1%

DET By 1-2 runs

19.6%

DET By 3-4 runs

18.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3.9
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.80
5.8
DETROIT
Book Implied: 3.20
Simulated Score
5
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.80
3
DETROIT
Book Implied: 3.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Tigers Win
66% Win Prob
B
Sim Rays Loss
70% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tigers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.9
A
Sim Rays (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.7
B
Sim o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 26, 2026 TB @ DET 3 - 0
Aug 25, 2026 TB @ DET 1 - 4
Aug 24, 2026 TB @ DET 4 - 1
Jun 3, 2026 DET @ TB 7 - 2
Jun 2, 2026 DET @ TB 8 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay TB
vs
Detroit DET
162
Games Played
162
4.54 ▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.258 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.241
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.320
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.728 ▲
OPS
.720
169
Home Runs
▲ 181
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +70.5% more
Detroit: 4.1 vs Tampa Bay: 2.4
Home Runs (Season) +7.1% more
Detroit: 181.0 vs Tampa Bay: 169.0
Home Runs (L5) +21.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.7 vs Detroit: 0.5
Hits (L5) +20.5% more
Tampa Bay: 8.1 vs Detroit: 6.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 3.9 1
DET Score 5.8 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.5 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.5 / 8.1 8.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 0.5 / 0.7 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 5.9 / 7.3 7.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 10.1 / 11.6 14.0 / 6.0
Walks 4.1 / 2.4 0.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -136 / +113 → -124 / +116 ↓
71%TICKETS29%
79%MONEY21%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
87%TICKETS13%
89%MONEY11%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5 → 8 ↑
48%TICKETS52%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
DET
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
TB
DET
TB
ML
54% 86-73
58% 95-68
54% 87-73
58% 95-68
ATS
64% 101-58
60% 97-66
57% 91-69
55% 90-73
TTL
46% 69-81-9
47% 73-81-9
46% 69-81-10
51% 78-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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