BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
73-59 | Road
7
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
67-66 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Payton Tolle
#70 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Phillips
#30 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payton Tolle | 8-6 | 3.08 | 1.08 | 120.0 | 134 |
| Tyler Phillips | 3-6 | 3.67 | 1.37 | 100.2 | 79 |
8-6
W-L
3-6
3.08 Ldr
ERA
3.67
1.08 Ldr
WHIP
1.37
120.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
100.2
134 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
79
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
52%
MARLINS
48%
▲ Edge: +4.60% (MIA)
RED SOX
58%
Book Odds: -140
MARLINS
43%
Book Odds: +131
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.7
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.7 (Over)
Over 7.0
58%
Under 7.0
42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.3
MIAMI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIA +0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
BOS By 1-2 runs
18.9%
BOS By 3-4 runs
14.4%
MIA By 1-2 runs
17.9%
MIA By 3-4 runs
12.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
4
BOSTON
Book Implied: 4.20
Miami
3.7
MIAMI
Book Implied: 2.80
Simulated Score
Boston
2
BOSTON
Book Implied: 4.20
Miami
3
MIAMI
Book Implied: 2.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Red Sox
Win
52% Win Prob
D
Sim
Marlins
Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Marlins (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +0.3
C
Sim
Marlins (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.7
C
Sim
u7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 26, 2026
BOS @ MIA
0 - 4
Aug 25, 2026
BOS @ MIA
7 - 3
Aug 24, 2026
BOS @ MIA
4 - 2
Aug 17, 2025
MIA @ BOS
5 - 3
Aug 16, 2025
MIA @ BOS
5 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
Miami
MIA
2
Games Played
▲
162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.41
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.249
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.400
.409
OPS
▲
.727
2
Home Runs
▲
168
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+58.4% more
Boston: 1.0
vs
Miami: 0.4
Total Bases (L5)
+29.0% more
Boston: 16.0
vs
Miami: 11.4
Home Runs (L5)
+19.0% more
Boston: 0.7
vs
Miami: 0.5
Hits (L5)
+18.4% more
Boston: 9.8
vs
Miami: 8.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
4.0
7
MIA Score
3.7
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 1.0
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
8.0 / 9.8
7.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.5 / 0.7
1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
6.5 / 6.4
9.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
11.4 / 16.0
11.0 / 16.0
Walks
4.7 / 3.9
6.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -129 / +106
→
-140 / +131
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1 / +1
→
-1.5 / +1.5
↓
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5
→
7
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
BOS
MIA
BOS
ML
48%
78-84
50%
80-80
55%
88-72
47%
76-87
ATS
56%
91-71
58%
93-67
54%
86-74
48%
79-84
TTL
56%
88-69-5
46%
72-83-5
53%
82-73-5
47%
74-83-6
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