PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
73-59 | Road
2
SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
63-69 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Zack Wheeler
#45 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Logan Gilbert
#36 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Wheeler | 10-4 | 2.92 | 1.01 | 120.1 | 144 |
| Logan Gilbert | 10-7 | 3.35 | 1.01 | 150.1 | 157 |
10-4
W-L
10-7
2.92 Ldr
ERA
3.35
1.01
WHIP
1.01
120.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 150.1
144
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 157
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
56%
MARINERS
44%
▲ Edge: +2.40% (PHI)
PHILLIES
53%
Book Odds: -114
MARINERS
49%
Book Odds: +106
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.2
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.7 (Over)
Over 6.5
67%
Under 6.5
33%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.6
SEATTLE
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Seattle)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SEA +0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.3%
PHI By 3-4 runs
15.3%
SEA By 1-2 runs
17.2%
SEA By 3-4 runs
11.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
4.4
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 4
Seattle
3.8
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 2.50
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
2
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 4
Seattle
4
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 2.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Phillies
Loss
56% Win Prob
C
Sim
Mariners
Win
68% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mariners (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +0.6
C
Sim
Mariners (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o6.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.2
B
Sim
u6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 26, 2026
PHI @ SEA
6 - 0
Aug 25, 2026
PHI @ SEA
1 - 4
Aug 24, 2026
PHI @ SEA
2 - 9
Aug 20, 2025
SEA @ PHI
2 - 11
Aug 19, 2025
SEA @ PHI
4 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Seattle
SEA
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.10
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.314
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.379
.724
▲
OPS
.693
3
Home Runs
▲
182
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5)
+31.5% more
Philadelphia: 17.2
vs
Seattle: 11.8
Hits (L5)
+30.5% more
Philadelphia: 11.0
vs
Seattle: 7.6
Slugging Pct (Season)
+5.9%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
Seattle: 37.9%
OPS (Season)
+3.1%
Philadelphia: 72.4%
vs
Seattle: 69.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
4.4
2
SEA Score
3.8
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.0 / 0.5
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.6 / 11.0
10.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.0
5.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.7 / 6.2
12.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
11.8 / 17.2
25.0 / 8.0
Walks
2.9 / 2.9
6.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -123 / +102
→
-114 / +106
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5
→
6.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
Advantage
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
PHI
SEA
PHI
ML
50%
81-81
59%
97-67
52%
85-77
49%
80-84
ATS
60%
98-64
65%
107-57
59%
95-67
51%
83-81
TTL
56%
85-67-10
57%
88-67-9
53%
81-71-10
51%
78-76-9
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