COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
50-81 | Road
3
WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
62-71 | Home
13
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Ryan Feltner
#18 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Cavalli
#24 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Feltner | 5-7 | 5.97 | 1.53 | 92.0 | 64 |
| Cade Cavalli | 11-5 | 3.22 | 1.22 | 142.2 | 162 |
5-7
W-L
11-5
5.97
ERA
Ldr 3.22
1.53
WHIP
Ldr 1.22
92.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 142.2
64
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 162
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
29%
NATIONALS
71%
▲ Edge: +5.20% (WSH)
ROCKIES
36%
Book Odds: +180
NATIONALS
66%
Book Odds: -194
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.3
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.3 (Over)
Over 8.0
63%
Under 8.0
37%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.5
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around WSH -2.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
COL By 1-2 runs
12.1%
COL By 3-4 runs
6.6%
WSH By 1-2 runs
19.1%
WSH By 3-4 runs
19.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Colorado
3.4
COLORADO
Book Implied: 3.20
Washington
5.9
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
Colorado
3
COLORADO
Book Implied: 3.20
Washington
5
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Nationals
Win
71% Win Prob
A
Sim
Nationals
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Nationals (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.5
C
Sim
Nationals (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.3
C
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 27, 2026
COL @ WSH
1 - 7
Aug 26, 2026
COL @ WSH
13 - 1
Aug 25, 2026
COL @ WSH
3 - 1
Aug 24, 2026
COL @ WSH
3 - 13
Jul 22, 2026
WSH @ COL
8 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado
COL
vs
Washington
WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.64
Runs / Game
▲
5.07
.254
▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.322
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.321
.417
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.423
.739
OPS
▲
.744
180
Home Runs
▲
210
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+32.3% more
Washington: 3.7
vs
Colorado: 2.8
Home Runs (Season)
+16.7% more
Washington: 210.0
vs
Colorado: 180.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+9.3% more
Washington: 5.1
vs
Colorado: 4.6
Slugging Pct (Season)
+0.6%
Washington: 42.3%
vs
Colorado: 41.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
COL Score
3.4
3
WSH Score
5.9
13
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.6
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
5.4 / 7.2
13.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.4 / 0.7
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.4 / 8.8
6.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
8.1 / 11.6
20.0 / 14.0
Walks
3.7 / 2.8
8.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +159 / -194
→
+180 / -194
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0
(35.8%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
COL
WSH
COL
ML
57%
92-69
60%
97-64
54%
87-74
55%
88-73
ATS
58%
93-68
60%
97-64
57%
91-70
52%
83-78
TTL
50%
77-78-6
60%
93-62-6
42%
65-90-6
50%
77-78-6
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