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TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

78-53  |  Road

4
FINAL
Mon, Aug 24 • 6:40 PM ET
Comerica Park
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

TIGERSDET

61-70  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Drew Rasmussen
STARTING PITCHER

Drew Rasmussen

#57 | Starting Pitcher
@
Framber Valdez
STARTING PITCHER

Framber Valdez

#59 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Drew Rasmussen 13-5 3.01 0.95 134.1 138
Framber Valdez 8-8 4.35 1.40 138.2 111
13-5 W-L 8-8
3.01 Ldr ERA 4.35
0.95 Ldr WHIP 1.40
134.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 138.2
138 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 111
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
35%
📊
TIGERS
65%
▲ Edge: +18.80% (DET)
RAYS 56% Book Odds: -127
TIGERS 46% Book Odds: +119
Book Implied: 55.90% / 45.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.1
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 (Over)
Over 7.5 65%
Under 7.5 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.7
DETROIT
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.2 points (Detroit)
RaysTB (-1.5) 0 TigersDET (+1.5)
Detroit Tigers (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rays Cover

33.5%

Tigers Cover

66.5%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET -1.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

TB By 1-2 runs

14.4%

TB By 3-4 runs

8.6%

DET By 1-2 runs

19.7%

DET By 3-4 runs

17.9%

AI Model Projected Score
3.7
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.50
5.4
DETROIT
Book Implied: 3
Simulated Score
5
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.50
3
DETROIT
Book Implied: 3
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Tigers Loss
65% Win Prob
B
Sim Rays Win
70% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tigers (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.7
A
Sim Rays (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.1
C
Sim o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 26, 2026 TB @ DET 3 - 0
Aug 25, 2026 TB @ DET 1 - 4
Aug 24, 2026 TB @ DET 4 - 1
Jun 3, 2026 DET @ TB 7 - 2
Jun 2, 2026 DET @ TB 8 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay TB
vs
Detroit DET
162
Games Played
162
4.54 ▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.258 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.241
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.320
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.728 ▲
OPS
.720
169
Home Runs
▲ 181
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +48.2% more
Detroit: 7.3 vs Tampa Bay: 4.9
Walks (L5) +33.3% more
Detroit: 4.2 vs Tampa Bay: 3.1
Home Runs (L5) +18.0% more
Detroit: 0.8 vs Tampa Bay: 0.6
Total Bases (L5) +12.6% more
Detroit: 11.6 vs Tampa Bay: 10.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 3.7 4
DET Score 5.4 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.7 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.2 / 7.7 5.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 0.6 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.3 / 4.9 3.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 11.6 / 10.3 7.0 / 14.0
Walks 4.2 / 3.1 4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -131 / +109 → -127 / +119 ↓
73%TICKETS27%
81%MONEY19%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
73%TICKETS27%
87%MONEY13%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5 → 7.5
71%TICKETS29%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
DET
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
TB
DET
TB
ML
54% 86-73
58% 95-68
54% 87-73
58% 95-68
ATS
64% 101-58
60% 97-66
57% 91-69
55% 90-73
TTL
46% 69-81-9
47% 73-81-9
46% 69-81-10
51% 78-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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