BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
72-59 | Road
4
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
67-65 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Ranger Suarez
#55 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Sandy Alcantara
#22 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ranger Suarez | 5-3 | 3.41 | 1.18 | 113.1 | 113 |
| Sandy Alcantara | 13-8 | 3.46 | 1.18 | 176.2 | 131 |
5-3
W-L
13-8
3.41 Ldr
ERA
3.46
1.18
WHIP
1.18
113.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 176.2
113
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 131
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
52%
MARLINS
48%
▲ Edge: +0.60% (MIA)
RED SOX
54%
Book Odds: -119
MARLINS
47%
Book Odds: +111
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.8
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.8 (Over)
Over 7.0
58%
Under 7.0
42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.2
MIAMI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIA +0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
BOS By 1-2 runs
18.7%
BOS By 3-4 runs
14.1%
MIA By 1-2 runs
18.1%
MIA By 3-4 runs
13.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
4
BOSTON
Book Implied: 4.20
Miami
3.8
MIAMI
Book Implied: 2.80
Simulated Score
Boston
2
BOSTON
Book Implied: 4.20
Miami
5
MIAMI
Book Implied: 2.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Red Sox
Win
52% Win Prob
C
Sim
Marlins
Loss
77% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Marlins (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +0.2
B
Sim
Marlins (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.8
D
Sim
o7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 26, 2026
BOS @ MIA
0 - 4
Aug 25, 2026
BOS @ MIA
7 - 3
Aug 24, 2026
BOS @ MIA
4 - 2
Aug 17, 2025
MIA @ BOS
5 - 3
Aug 16, 2025
MIA @ BOS
5 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
Miami
MIA
2
Games Played
▲
162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.41
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.249
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.400
.409
OPS
▲
.727
2
Home Runs
▲
168
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+37.6% more
Boston: 1.0
vs
Miami: 0.6
Total Bases (L5)
+32.1% more
Boston: 17.0
vs
Miami: 11.5
Home Runs (L5)
+27.1% more
Boston: 1.1
vs
Miami: 0.8
Hits (L5)
+26.6% more
Boston: 10.2
vs
Miami: 7.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
4.0
4
MIA Score
3.8
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 1.0
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.5 / 10.2
9.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 1.1
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.3 / 6.2
7.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
11.5 / 17.0
11.0 / 14.0
Walks
4.0 / 3.8
6.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -136 / +113
→
-119 / +111
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7
→
7
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
BOS
MIA
BOS
ML
48%
78-84
50%
80-80
55%
88-72
47%
76-87
ATS
56%
91-71
58%
93-67
54%
86-74
48%
79-84
TTL
56%
88-69-5
46%
72-83-5
53%
82-73-5
47%
74-83-6
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