ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
76-55 | Road
4
MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
81-50 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Mahle
#54 | Starting Pitcher@
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Shane Drohan
#55 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Mahle | 4-10 | 4.53 | 1.31 | 113.1 | 108 |
| Shane Drohan | 6-4 | 3.86 | 1.25 | 100.1 | 99 |
4-10
W-L
6-4
4.53
ERA
Ldr 3.86
1.31
WHIP
Ldr 1.25
113.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
100.1
108 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
99
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
38%
BREWERS
62%
▲ Edge: +9.60% (MIL)
BRAVES
50%
Book Odds: +102
BREWERS
52%
Book Odds: -109
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 8.0
60%
Under 8.0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIL -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
ATL By 1-2 runs
15.3%
ATL By 3-4 runs
9.5%
MIL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
MIL By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
3.8
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 4.80
Milwaukee
5.2
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 3.20
Simulated Score
Atlanta
5
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 4.80
Milwaukee
3
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 3.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Brewers
Loss
62% Win Prob
B
Sim
Braves
Win
70% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Brewers (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.4
A
Sim
Braves (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
ATL @ MIL
4 - 2
Aug 22, 2026
ATL @ MIL
1 - 4
Aug 21, 2026
ATL @ MIL
1 - 2
Jun 21, 2026
MIL @ ATL
9 - 4
Jun 20, 2026
MIL @ ATL
3 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
Milwaukee
MIL
1
Games Played
▲
162
5.00
Runs / Game
▲
5.14
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.324
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.341
.433
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.403
.757
▲
OPS
.743
1
Home Runs
▲
154
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+15300.0% more
Milwaukee: 154.0
vs
Atlanta: 1.0
Home Runs (L5)
+76.0% more
Milwaukee: 0.9
vs
Atlanta: 0.2
Total Bases (L5)
+52.7% more
Milwaukee: 13.9
vs
Atlanta: 9.1
Walks (L5)
+49.6% more
Milwaukee: 3.7
vs
Atlanta: 2.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
3.8
4
MIL Score
5.2
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.5
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.6 / 7.3
11.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 0.2
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.0 / 7.1
6.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
13.9 / 9.1
14.0 / 16.0
Walks
3.7 / 2.5
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +115 / -140
→
+102 / -109
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1 / -1
→
-1.5 / +1.5
↓
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
ATL
MIL
ATL
ML
62%
101-61
46%
77-90
52%
84-78
54%
90-78
ATS
58%
94-68
57%
96-71
48%
78-84
52%
87-81
TTL
40%
62-92-8
53%
83-73-11
50%
77-77-8
49%
76-80-11
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