NEW YORK
METSNYM
59-72 | Road
1
CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
68-62 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Nolan McLean
#26 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Sean Newcomb
#15 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nolan McLean | 9-8 | 3.34 | 1.16 | 142.2 | 162 |
| Sean Newcomb | 1-3 | 2.44 | 1.10 | 70.0 | 64 |
9-8
W-L
1-3
3.34
ERA
Ldr 2.44
1.16
WHIP
Ldr 1.10
142.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
70.0
162 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
64
AI Model Win Probability
METS
44%
WHITE SOX
56%
▲ Edge: +4.70% (CHW)
METS
50%
Book Odds: -101
WHITE SOX
52%
Book Odds: -107
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.1
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.6 (Over)
Over 8.5
56%
Under 8.5
44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
CHICAGO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.2 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHW -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHW)
NYM By 1-2 runs
17.0%
NYM By 3-4 runs
11.5%
CHW By 1-2 runs
19.4%
CHW By 3-4 runs
15.5%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
4.2
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 5
Chicago
4.9
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
New York
4
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 5
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
White Sox
Win
56% Win Prob
B
Sim
White Sox
Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
White Sox (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.7
B
Sim
White Sox (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.1
C
Sim
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
NYM @ CHW
1 - 2
Aug 22, 2026
NYM @ CHW
10 - 5
Aug 21, 2026
NYM @ CHW
4 - 6
May 28, 2025
CHW @ NYM
9 - 4
May 27, 2025
CHW @ NYM
4 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYM
vs
Chicago
CHW
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.31
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.324
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.415
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.412
.705
OPS
▲
.826
204
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+41.0% more
Chicago: 0.6
vs
New York: 0.2
Runs per Game (Season)
+39.2% more
Chicago: 6.0
vs
New York: 4.3
OPS (Season)
+12.1%
Chicago: 82.6%
vs
New York: 70.5%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+10.5%
Chicago: 41.5%
vs
New York: 31.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYM Score
4.2
1
CHW Score
4.9
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.1 / 10.2
5.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.9 / 2.4
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.4 / 10.8
10.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
13.7 / 19.1
9.0 / 9.0
Walks
3.4 / 4.1
4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -100 / -121
→
-101 / -107
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1 / -1
→
-1.5 / +1.5
↓
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
CHW
Advantage
88-79-0
(52.7%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
CHW
Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
NYM
CHW
NYM
ML
49%
81-86
50%
79-80
56%
94-73
48%
76-83
ATS
59%
99-68
58%
93-66
56%
93-74
49%
78-81
TTL
58%
96-69-2
55%
80-66-13
51%
84-81-2
51%
74-72-13
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