ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
51-80 | Road
7
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
65-66 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Brady Basso
#66 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Cristian Javier
#53 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Basso | 0-0 | 3.91 | 1.35 | 23.0 | 19 |
| Cristian Javier | 1-4 | 6.44 | 1.68 | 36.1 | 30 |
0-0
W-L
1-4
3.91 Ldr
ERA
6.44
1.35 Ldr
WHIP
1.68
23.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 36.1
19
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 30
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
55%
ASTROS
45%
▲ Edge: +17.20% (ATH)
ATHLETICS
38%
Book Odds: +162
ASTROS
64%
Book Odds: -174
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.1
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.1 (Over)
Over 9.0
60%
Under 9.0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Athletics)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATH -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)
ATH By 1-2 runs
19.1%
ATH By 3-4 runs
15.0%
HOU By 1-2 runs
17.5%
HOU By 3-4 runs
12.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Athletics
5.3
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 3.80
Houston
4.8
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 5.20
Simulated Score
Athletics
4
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 3.80
Houston
2
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 5.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Athletics
Win
55% Win Prob
C
Sim
Athletics
Win
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Athletics (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.5
B
Sim
Athletics (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
o9.0
Win
Proj Total: 10.1
B
Sim
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
HOU @ ATH
9 - 0
Sep 26, 2026
HOU @ ATH
13 - 2
Sep 25, 2026
HOU @ ATH
5 - 6
Sep 24, 2026
HOU @ ATH
7 - 5
Aug 23, 2026
ATH @ HOU
7 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics
ATH
vs
Houston
HOU
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.31
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.245
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.719
▲
OPS
.582
194
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+97.9% more
Athletics: 194.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+30.4% more
Athletics: 4.3
vs
Houston: 3.0
OPS (Season)
+13.7%
Athletics: 71.9%
vs
Houston: 58.2%
Hits (L5)
+12.0% more
Athletics: 7.8
vs
Houston: 6.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATH Score
5.3
7
HOU Score
4.8
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.8
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
6.9 / 7.8
8.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 0.7
2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.5 / 8.2
10.0 / 16.0
Total Bases
11.3 / 10.8
15.0 / 18.0
Walks
4.3 / 3.7
6.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +218 / -276
→
+162 / -174
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
9
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
ATH
HOU
ATH
ML
50%
81-82
59%
95-67
47%
77-87
54%
87-74
ATS
56%
91-72
52%
84-78
55%
90-74
50%
81-80
TTL
45%
70-84-9
54%
84-73-5
45%
69-86-9
42%
66-90-5
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