TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
64-68 | Road
3
NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
74-56 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jose Soriano
#40 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Carlos Rodon
#55 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Soriano | 10-6 | 3.23 | 1.26 | 139.1 | 136 |
| Carlos Rodon | 4-2 | 3.22 | 1.23 | 50.1 | 56 |
10-6
W-L
4-2
3.23
ERA
Ldr 3.22
1.26
WHIP
Ldr 1.23
139.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
50.1
136 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
56
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
59%
YANKEES
41%
▲ Edge: +12.40% (TOR)
BLUE JAYS
47%
Book Odds: +114
YANKEES
55%
Book Odds: -122
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.7
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.3 (Under)
Over 8.0
49%
Under 8.0
51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
TORONTO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.4 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TOR -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
TOR By 1-2 runs
19.5%
TOR By 3-4 runs
16.1%
NYY By 1-2 runs
16.6%
NYY By 3-4 runs
10.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
4.3
TORONTO
Book Implied: 3.20
New York
3.4
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Book Implied: 3.20
New York
4
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays
Loss
59% Win Prob
B
Sim
Yankees
Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.9
A
Sim
Blue Jays (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
u8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.7
D
Sim
u8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
TOR @ NYY
3 - 8
Aug 22, 2026
TOR @ NYY
4 - 3
Aug 21, 2026
TOR @ NYY
1 - 3
Aug 16, 2026
NYY @ TOR
4 - 3
Aug 15, 2026
NYY @ TOR
1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
New York
NYY
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.00
Runs / Game
▲
9.00
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲
.375
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.447
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.594
.692
OPS
▲
1.041
152
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+98.7% more
Toronto: 152.0
vs
New York: 2.0
Hits (L5)
+49.9% more
Toronto: 11.8
vs
New York: 5.9
Total Bases (L5)
+43.2% more
Toronto: 18.1
vs
New York: 10.3
Walks (L5)
+23.9% more
Toronto: 3.6
vs
New York: 2.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
4.3
3
NYY Score
3.4
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.1 / 0.2
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
5.9 / 11.8
11.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 1.1
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.5 / 9.6
11.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
10.3 / 18.1
19.0 / 9.0
Walks
2.7 / 3.6
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -106 / -114
→
+114 / -122
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1 / +1
→
+1.5 / -1.5
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5
→
8
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
TOR
NYY
TOR
ML
47%
76-85
46%
74-87
52%
85-77
50%
80-80
ATS
59%
95-66
56%
90-71
53%
86-76
49%
79-81
TTL
53%
81-73-7
51%
80-76-5
53%
82-72-7
45%
70-85-5
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …
Yankees' Faithful Boo as Another Season Ends in Disappointment: …