CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
62-68 | Road
11
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
68-62 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Rhett Lowder
#25 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Michael Soroka
#34 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhett Lowder | 4-8 | 5.17 | 1.49 | 101.0 | 82 |
| Michael Soroka | 8-3 | 2.93 | 1.11 | 92.0 | 88 |
4-8
W-L
8-3
5.17
ERA
Ldr 2.93
1.49
WHIP
Ldr 1.11
101.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
92.0
82
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 88
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
35%
DIAMONDBACKS
65%
▲ Edge: +0.60% (ARI)
REDS
37%
Book Odds: +169
DIAMONDBACKS
65%
Book Odds: -182
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.4
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.4 (Over)
Over 8.0
64%
Under 8.0
36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
ARIZONA
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
CIN By 1-2 runs
14.1%
CIN By 3-4 runs
8.4%
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.7%
ARI By 3-4 runs
18.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
3.8
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3.20
Arizona
5.6
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3.20
Arizona
3
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks
Loss
65% Win Prob
C
Sim
Reds
Win
70% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.8
D
Sim
Reds (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.4
C
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
CIN @ ARI
3 - 5
Aug 22, 2026
CIN @ ARI
11 - 5
Aug 21, 2026
CIN @ ARI
0 - 9
Jun 14, 2026
ARI @ CIN
5 - 3
Jun 13, 2026
ARI @ CIN
1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
Arizona
ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.246
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.318
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.699
OPS
▲
.720
213
▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5)
+127.4% more
Arizona: 16.6
vs
Cincinnati: 7.3
Hits (L5)
+102.1% more
Arizona: 10.5
vs
Cincinnati: 5.2
Home Runs (L5)
+47.0% more
Arizona: 1.1
vs
Cincinnati: 0.6
Runs per Game (Season)
+10.9% more
Arizona: 4.6
vs
Cincinnati: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
3.8
11
ARI Score
5.6
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.7
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
10.5 / 5.2
10.0 / 16.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 0.6
2.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts
8.0 / 7.8
8.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
16.6 / 7.3
18.0 / 33.0
Walks
2.4 / 4.6
5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +134 / -162
→
+169 / -182
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
CIN
ARI
CIN
ML
54%
87-74
55%
88-71
54%
86-74
49%
79-81
ATS
57%
91-70
54%
86-73
56%
89-71
50%
80-80
TTL
52%
80-73-8
53%
81-73-5
49%
73-77-9
54%
83-72-5
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