CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
74-56 | Road
4
SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
62-68 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
David Peterson
#19 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Kade Anderson
#13 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Peterson | 7-7 | 5.29 | 1.53 | 112.1 | 95 |
| Kade Anderson | 0-0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -- | -- |
7-7
W-L
0-0
5.29
ERA
Ldr 0.00
1.53
WHIP
Ldr 0.00
112.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
95 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
46%
MARINERS
54%
▲ Edge: +1% (SEA)
CUBS
49%
Book Odds: +105
MARINERS
53%
Book Odds: -113
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.1
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.6 (Over)
Over 7.5
73%
Under 7.5
27%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
SEATTLE
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Seattle)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SEA -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)
CHC By 1-2 runs
17.5%
CHC By 3-4 runs
12.1%
SEA By 1-2 runs
19.1%
SEA By 3-4 runs
15.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
4.8
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 4.50
Seattle
5.3
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 3
Simulated Score
Chicago
3
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 4.50
Seattle
4
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 3
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mariners
Win
54% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mariners
Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mariners (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.5
B
Sim
Mariners (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 10.1
A
Sim
u7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
CHC @ SEA
19 - 2
Aug 22, 2026
CHC @ SEA
4 - 5
Aug 21, 2026
CHC @ SEA
5 - 6
Jun 22, 2025
SEA @ CHC
14 - 6
Jun 21, 2025
SEA @ CHC
7 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHC
vs
Seattle
SEA
2
Games Played
▲
162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.10
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲
.233
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.314
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.379
.374
OPS
▲
.693
0
Home Runs
▲
182
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+18200.0% more
Seattle: 182.0
vs
Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+360.0% more
Seattle: 4.1
vs
Chicago: 0.5
Errors (L5)
+87.0% more
Seattle: 1.4
vs
Chicago: 0.5
Strikeouts (L5)
+37.1% more
Seattle: 10.7
vs
Chicago: 7.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHC Score
4.8
4
SEA Score
5.3
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.4 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.9 / 8.4
8.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 2.2
2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
10.7 / 7.8
10.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
11.1 / 17.0
16.0 / 16.0
Walks
4.0 / 3.6
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +102 / -112
→
+105 / -113
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
7.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
CHC
SEA
CHC
ML
50%
81-81
58%
93-68
52%
85-77
51%
82-79
ATS
60%
98-64
61%
97-63-1
59%
95-67
47%
75-85-1
TTL
56%
85-67-10
52%
81-74-6
53%
81-71-10
46%
72-83-6
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