Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mets @ White Sox NYM @ CHW

NEW YORK

METSNYM

59-71  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Aug 22 • 7:10 PM ET
Rate Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

67-62  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Christian Scott
STARTING PITCHER

Christian Scott

#45 | Starting Pitcher
@
Luis Castillo
STARTING PITCHER

Luis Castillo

#58 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Christian Scott 4-3 3.51 1.29 84.2 105
Luis Castillo 4-9 4.99 1.37 115.1 102
4-3 W-L 4-9
3.51 Ldr ERA 4.99
1.29 Ldr WHIP 1.37
84.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 115.1
105 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 102
AI Model Win Probability
METS
57%
📊
WHITE SOX
43%
▲ Edge: +7.20% (NYM)
METS 50% Book Odds: +101
WHITE SOX 52% Book Odds: -108
Book Implied: 49.80% / 51.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.7
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 (Over)
Over 8.5 62%
Under 8.5 38%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.7
CHICAGO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Chicago)
MetsNYM (-1.5) 0 White SoxCHW (+1.5)
Chicago White Sox (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mets Cover

43.1%

White Sox Cover

56.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHW +0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHW)

NYM By 1-2 runs

19.4%

NYM By 3-4 runs

15.5%

CHW By 1-2 runs

17.0%

CHW By 3-4 runs

11.5%

AI Model Projected Score
5.2
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 5
4.5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
3
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 5
4
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mets Win
57% Win Prob
C
Sim White Sox Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI White Sox (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +0.7
C
Sim White Sox (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.7
C
Sim u8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 23, 2026 NYM @ CHW 1 - 2
Aug 22, 2026 NYM @ CHW 10 - 5
Aug 21, 2026 NYM @ CHW 4 - 6
May 28, 2025 CHW @ NYM 9 - 4
May 27, 2025 CHW @ NYM 4 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYM
vs
Chicago CHW
162 ▲
Games Played
1
4.31
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .324
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .415
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .412
.705
OPS
▲ .826
204 ▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +99.5% more
New York: 204.0 vs Chicago: 1.0
Strikeouts (L5) +17.0% more
New York: 9.7 vs Chicago: 8.1
Hits (L5) +15.6% more
New York: 7.3 vs Chicago: 6.2
Home Runs (L5) +62.5% more
Chicago: 1.8 vs New York: 1.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYM Score 5.2 10
CHW Score 4.5 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.3 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.2 / 7.3 9.0 / 16.0
Home Runs 1.8 / 1.1 2.0 / 5.0
Strikeouts 8.1 / 9.7 6.0 / 13.0
Total Bases 13.0 / 12.1 15.0 / 33.0
Walks 4.0 / 2.6 2.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +101 / -122 → +101 / -108 ↓
45%TICKETS55%
54%MONEY46%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5 ↓
31%TICKETS69%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 8.5
52%TICKETS48%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
CHW Advantage
88-79-0 (52.7%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
CHW Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8% Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
NYM
CHW
NYM
ML
49% 81-86
50% 79-80
56% 94-73
48% 76-83
ATS
59% 99-68
58% 93-66
56% 93-74
49% 78-81
TTL
58% 96-69-2
55% 80-66-13
51% 84-81-2
51% 74-72-13
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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