TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
64-67 | Road
4
NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
73-56 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Dylan Cease
#84 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Ryan Weathers
#40 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cease | 7-5 | 2.42 | 1.06 | 137.2 | 201 |
| Ryan Weathers | 5-7 | 3.56 | 1.19 | 134.0 | 140 |
7-5
W-L
5-7
2.42 Ldr
ERA
3.56
1.06 Ldr
WHIP
1.19
137.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
134.0
201 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
140
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
57%
YANKEES
43%
▲ Edge: +5.60% (TOR)
BLUE JAYS
52%
Book Odds: -106
YANKEES
50%
Book Odds: -101
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.8
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.3 (Over)
Over 6.5
64%
Under 6.5
36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.8
NEW YORK
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYY +0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)
TOR By 1-2 runs
19.4%
TOR By 3-4 runs
15.8%
NYY By 1-2 runs
16.8%
NYY By 3-4 runs
11.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
4.3
TORONTO
Book Implied: 4
New York
3.5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 2.50
Simulated Score
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Book Implied: 4
New York
5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 2.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays
Win
57% Win Prob
C
Sim
Yankees
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Yankees (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +0.8
C
Sim
Yankees (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o6.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.8
B
Sim
o6.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
TOR @ NYY
3 - 8
Aug 22, 2026
TOR @ NYY
4 - 3
Aug 21, 2026
TOR @ NYY
1 - 3
Aug 16, 2026
NYY @ TOR
4 - 3
Aug 15, 2026
NYY @ TOR
1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
New York
NYY
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.00
Runs / Game
▲
9.00
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲
.375
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.447
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.594
.692
OPS
▲
1.041
152
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+98.7% more
Toronto: 152.0
vs
New York: 2.0
Hits (L5)
+32.7% more
Toronto: 10.2
vs
New York: 6.9
Total Bases (L5)
+31.4% more
Toronto: 16.6
vs
New York: 11.4
Runs per Game (Season)
+125.0% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Toronto: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
4.3
4
NYY Score
3.5
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.3
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.9 / 10.2
4.0 / 15.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.2
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
11.2 / 8.3
6.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
11.4 / 16.6
8.0 / 21.0
Walks
3.1 / 2.9
2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +110 / -121
→
-106 / -101
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
↓
Total (O/U)
Open: 7
→
6.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
TOR
NYY
TOR
ML
47%
76-85
46%
74-87
52%
85-77
50%
80-80
ATS
59%
95-66
56%
90-71
53%
86-76
49%
79-81
TTL
53%
81-73-7
51%
80-76-5
53%
82-72-7
45%
70-85-5
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