CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
74-55 | Road
5
SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
61-68 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Matthew Boyd
#16 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Emerson Hancock
#26 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Boyd | 8-2 | 4.02 | 1.24 | 85.0 | 68 |
| Emerson Hancock | 7-7 | 3.30 | 1.11 | 128.0 | 119 |
8-2
W-L
7-7
4.02
ERA
Ldr 3.30
1.24
WHIP
Ldr 1.11
85.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 128.0
68
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 119
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
57%
MARINERS
43%
▲ Edge: +6.40% (CHC)
CUBS
51%
Book Odds: -102
MARINERS
51%
Book Odds: -105
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.7
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +3.2 (Over)
Over 7.5
74%
Under 7.5
26%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.7
SEATTLE
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Seattle)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SEA +0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)
CHC By 1-2 runs
19.4%
CHC By 3-4 runs
15.5%
SEA By 1-2 runs
17.0%
SEA By 3-4 runs
11.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
5.7
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 4.50
Seattle
5
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 3
Simulated Score
Chicago
3
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 4.50
Seattle
4
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 3
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cubs
Loss
57% Win Prob
C
Sim
Mariners
Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mariners (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +0.7
C
Sim
Mariners (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 10.7
A
Sim
u7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
CHC @ SEA
19 - 2
Aug 22, 2026
CHC @ SEA
4 - 5
Aug 21, 2026
CHC @ SEA
5 - 6
Jun 22, 2025
SEA @ CHC
14 - 6
Jun 21, 2025
SEA @ CHC
7 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHC
vs
Seattle
SEA
2
Games Played
▲
162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.10
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲
.233
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.314
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.379
.374
OPS
▲
.693
0
Home Runs
▲
182
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+71.1% more
Chicago: 1.4
vs
Seattle: 0.4
Home Runs (Season)
+18200.0% more
Seattle: 182.0
vs
Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+360.0% more
Seattle: 4.1
vs
Chicago: 0.5
Errors (L5)
+82.0% more
Seattle: 1.1
vs
Chicago: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHC Score
5.7
5
SEA Score
5.0
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.1 / 0.3
2.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.8 / 6.6
8.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
0.4 / 1.4
1.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts
10.6 / 8.2
11.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
11.1 / 11.9
11.0 / 27.0
Walks
5.0 / 3.3
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -110 / -109
→
-102 / -105
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
7.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
CHC
SEA
CHC
ML
50%
81-81
58%
93-68
52%
85-77
51%
82-79
ATS
60%
98-64
61%
97-63-1
59%
95-67
47%
75-85-1
TTL
56%
85-67-10
52%
81-74-6
53%
81-71-10
46%
72-83-6
Contextual Game News
Cardinals Eye Another Dustin May-Style Signing to Bolster Rotati…
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
Jeimer Candelario Opts for Free Agency After Brief Angels Stint
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…