Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mets @ White Sox NYM @ CHW

NEW YORK

METSNYM

58-71  |  Road

4
FINAL
Fri, Aug 21 • 7:40 PM ET
Rate Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

67-61  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Sean Manaea
STARTING PITCHER

Sean Manaea

#59 | Starting Pitcher
@
Sean Burke
STARTING PITCHER

Sean Burke

#59 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Sean Manaea 4-5 4.22 1.32 111.0 113
Sean Burke 7-6 3.15 1.11 140.0 154
4-5 W-L 7-6
4.22 ERA Ldr 3.15
1.32 WHIP Ldr 1.11
111.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 140.0
113 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 154
AI Model Win Probability
METS
38%
📊
WHITE SOX
62%
▲ Edge: +7.10% (CHW)
METS 46% Book Odds: +116
WHITE SOX 55% Book Odds: -124
Book Implied: 46.30% / 55.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.4
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 (Over)
Over 8.0 64%
Under 8.0 36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
NEW YORK
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (New York)
MetsNYM (+1.5) 0 White SoxCHW (-1.5)
New York Mets (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mets Cover

63.7%

White Sox Cover

36.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

NYM By 1-2 runs

15.3%

NYM By 3-4 runs

9.5%

CHW By 1-2 runs

19.7%

CHW By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
4
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3.20
5.4
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
3
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3.20
5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI White Sox Win
62% Win Prob
C
Sim White Sox Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mets (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim White Sox (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.4
B
Sim o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 23, 2026 NYM @ CHW 1 - 2
Aug 22, 2026 NYM @ CHW 10 - 5
Aug 21, 2026 NYM @ CHW 4 - 6
May 28, 2025 CHW @ NYM 9 - 4
May 27, 2025 CHW @ NYM 4 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYM
vs
Chicago CHW
162 ▲
Games Played
1
4.31
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .324
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .415
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .412
.705
OPS
▲ .826
204 ▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +39.2% more
Chicago: 6.0 vs New York: 4.3
Walks (L5) +31.9% more
Chicago: 4.6 vs New York: 3.5
Errors (L5) +18.0% more
Chicago: 0.6 vs New York: 0.4
OPS (Season) +12.1%
Chicago: 82.6% vs New York: 70.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYM Score 4.0 4
CHW Score 5.4 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.2 / 6.9 6.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 1.2 4.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.6 / 10.1 7.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 10.0 / 11.6 19.0 / 13.0
Walks 4.6 / 3.5 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +123 / -149 → +116 / -124 ↓
29%TICKETS71%
21%MONEY79%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
29%TICKETS71%
16%MONEY84%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 8
86%TICKETS14%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
CHW Advantage
88-79-0 (52.7%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
CHW Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8% Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
NYM
CHW
NYM
ML
49% 81-86
50% 79-80
56% 94-73
48% 76-83
ATS
59% 99-68
58% 93-66
56% 93-74
49% 78-81
TTL
58% 96-69-2
55% 80-66-13
51% 84-81-2
51% 74-72-13
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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