TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
76-52 | Road
3
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
62-67 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Freddy Peralta
#51 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Trevor Rogers
#28 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freddy Peralta | 5-10 | 5.27 | 1.48 | 128.0 | 123 |
| Trevor Rogers | 8-8 | 4.15 | 1.25 | 125.2 | 108 |
5-10
W-L
8-8
5.27
ERA
Ldr 4.15
1.48
WHIP
Ldr 1.25
128.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
125.2
123 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
108
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
35%
ORIOLES
65%
▲ Edge: +11.70% (BAL)
RAYS
49%
Book Odds: +105
ORIOLES
53%
Book Odds: -113
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.3
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 8.0
58%
Under 8.0
42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.7
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.2 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BAL -1.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
TB By 1-2 runs
14.4%
TB By 3-4 runs
8.6%
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
BAL By 3-4 runs
17.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
3.3
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.80
Baltimore
5
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 3.20
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.80
Baltimore
6
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 3.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Orioles
Win
65% Win Prob
B
Sim
Orioles
Win
69% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Orioles (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.7
A
Sim
Orioles (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o8.0
Push
Proj Total: 8.3
C
Sim
o8.0
Push
Proj Total: 10.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
TB @ BAL
3 - 1
Aug 22, 2026
TB @ BAL
2 - 3
Aug 21, 2026
TB @ BAL
3 - 5
Aug 17, 2026
BAL @ TB
6 - 7
Aug 16, 2026
BAL @ TB
10 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Baltimore
BAL
162
▲
Games Played
161
4.54
▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.728
▲
OPS
.711
169
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+84.0% more
Baltimore: 1.6
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.7
Walks (L5)
+43.5% more
Baltimore: 3.1
vs
Tampa Bay: 2.1
Strikeouts (L5)
+26.3% more
Baltimore: 9.1
vs
Tampa Bay: 7.2
Home Runs (Season)
+17.8% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 169.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
3.3
3
BAL Score
5.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.8
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
6.5 / 8.6
8.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 0.7
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.1 / 7.2
10.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
12.1 / 11.7
15.0 / 11.0
Walks
3.1 / 2.1
1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +104 / -126
→
+105 / -113
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
↓
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
BAL
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
TB
BAL
TB
ML
53%
83-73
58%
95-68
57%
90-69
58%
95-68
ATS
61%
95-60-1
60%
97-66
57%
90-68-1
55%
90-73
TTL
54%
81-70-5
47%
73-81-9
51%
78-75-6
51%
78-75-10
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