TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
63-67 | Road
1
NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
73-55 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Mason Fluharty
#68 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Cam Schlittler
#31 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Fluharty | 5-1 | 3.71 | 1.24 | 51.0 | 56 |
| Cam Schlittler | 10-6 | 2.19 | 0.94 | 152.0 | 189 |
5-1
W-L
10-6
3.71
ERA
Ldr 2.19
1.24
WHIP
Ldr 0.94
51.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 152.0
56
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 189
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
42%
YANKEES
58%
▲ Edge: +6.20% (TOR)
BLUE JAYS
36%
Book Odds: +179
YANKEES
66%
Book Odds: -193
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.6
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.6 (Over)
Over 7.0
57%
Under 7.0
43%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TOR +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
TOR By 1-2 runs
16.3%
TOR By 3-4 runs
10.6%
NYY By 1-2 runs
19.6%
NYY By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
3.3
TORONTO
Book Implied: 2.80
New York
4.3
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4.20
Simulated Score
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Book Implied: 2.80
New York
5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Yankees
Win
58% Win Prob
C
Sim
Yankees
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Sim
Yankees (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.6
C
Sim
o7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
TOR @ NYY
3 - 8
Aug 22, 2026
TOR @ NYY
4 - 3
Aug 21, 2026
TOR @ NYY
1 - 3
Aug 16, 2026
NYY @ TOR
4 - 3
Aug 15, 2026
NYY @ TOR
1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
New York
NYY
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.00
Runs / Game
▲
9.00
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲
.375
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.447
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.594
.692
OPS
▲
1.041
152
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+125.0% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Toronto: 4.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+26.8% more
New York: 10.8
vs
Toronto: 8.5
Slugging Pct (Season)
+21.3%
New York: 59.4%
vs
Toronto: 38.1%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+13.7%
New York: 44.7%
vs
Toronto: 31.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
3.3
1
NYY Score
4.3
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.4
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.3 / 10.9
4.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 1.7
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
10.8 / 8.5
12.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
13.6 / 17.9
7.0 / 14.0
Walks
2.2 / 2.9
5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +194 / -240
→
+179 / -193
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
7
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
TOR
NYY
TOR
ML
47%
76-85
46%
74-87
52%
85-77
50%
80-80
ATS
59%
95-66
56%
90-71
53%
86-76
49%
79-81
TTL
53%
81-73-7
51%
80-76-5
53%
82-72-7
45%
70-85-5
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …
Yankees' Faithful Boo as Another Season Ends in Disappointment: …