ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
75-54 | Road
1
MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
80-49 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Chris Sale
#51 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jacob Misiorowski
#32 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Sale | 12-8 | 2.16 | 1.02 | 129.0 | 160 |
| Jacob Misiorowski | 12-5 | 1.75 | 0.75 | 139.0 | 210 |
12-8
W-L
12-5
2.16
ERA
Ldr 1.75
1.02
WHIP
Ldr 0.75
129.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 139.0
160
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 210
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
32%
BREWERS
68%
▲ Edge: +10% (MIL)
BRAVES
44%
Book Odds: +127
BREWERS
58%
Book Odds: -137
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.8
Projected
Book Total
6.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.8 (Over)
Over 6.0
70%
Under 6.0
30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIL -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
ATL By 1-2 runs
13.6%
ATL By 3-4 runs
7.8%
MIL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
MIL By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
2.9
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 2.20
Milwaukee
4.9
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 3.80
Simulated Score
Atlanta
2
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 2.20
Milwaukee
4
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 3.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Brewers
Win
68% Win Prob
A
Sim
Brewers
Win
68% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Brewers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Sim
Brewers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o6.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.8
A
Sim
o6.0
Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
ATL @ MIL
4 - 2
Aug 22, 2026
ATL @ MIL
1 - 4
Aug 21, 2026
ATL @ MIL
1 - 2
Jun 21, 2026
MIL @ ATL
9 - 4
Jun 20, 2026
MIL @ ATL
3 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
Milwaukee
MIL
1
Games Played
▲
162
5.00
Runs / Game
▲
5.14
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.324
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.341
.433
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.403
.757
▲
OPS
.743
1
Home Runs
▲
154
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+15300.0% more
Milwaukee: 154.0
vs
Atlanta: 1.0
Home Runs (L5)
+96.0% more
Milwaukee: 1.3
vs
Atlanta: 0.4
Walks (L5)
+74.8% more
Milwaukee: 4.1
vs
Atlanta: 2.3
Total Bases (L5)
+70.4% more
Milwaukee: 17.1
vs
Atlanta: 10.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
2.9
1
MIL Score
4.9
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.3
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
11.0 / 7.2
9.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.4 / 7.8
8.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
17.1 / 10.0
9.0 / 9.0
Walks
4.1 / 2.3
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +123 / -149
→
+127 / -137
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5
→
6
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
ATL
MIL
ATL
ML
62%
101-61
46%
77-90
52%
84-78
54%
90-78
ATS
58%
94-68
57%
96-71
48%
78-84
52%
87-81
TTL
40%
62-92-8
53%
83-73-11
50%
77-77-8
49%
76-80-11
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