SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
60-68 | Road
4
MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
79-49 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
George Kirby
#68 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Robert Gasser
#54 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kirby | 8-9 | 3.89 | 1.31 | 136.2 | 114 |
| Robert Gasser | 3-5 | 4.54 | 1.24 | 73.1 | 68 |
8-9
W-L
3-5
3.89 Ldr
ERA
4.54
1.31
WHIP
Ldr 1.24
136.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
73.1
114 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
68
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
46%
BREWERS
54%
▲ Edge: +1.50% (SEA)
MARINERS
44%
Book Odds: +125
BREWERS
57%
Book Odds: -134
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.9
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.9 (Over)
Over 8.0
66%
Under 8.0
34%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.5
SEATTLE
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Seattle)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SEA +0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)
SEA By 1-2 runs
17.5%
SEA By 3-4 runs
12.1%
MIL By 1-2 runs
19.1%
MIL By 3-4 runs
15.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Seattle
4.7
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 3.20
Milwaukee
5.2
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
Seattle
5
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 3.20
Milwaukee
4
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Brewers
Win
54% Win Prob
C
Sim
Mariners
Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mariners (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +0.5
D
Sim
Mariners (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.9
B
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 20, 2026
SEA @ MIL
4 - 7
Aug 19, 2026
SEA @ MIL
7 - 5
Aug 18, 2026
SEA @ MIL
0 - 22
Jul 23, 2025
MIL @ SEA
10 - 2
Jul 22, 2025
MIL @ SEA
0 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle
SEA
vs
Milwaukee
MIL
162
Games Played
162
4.10
Runs / Game
▲
5.14
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.341
.379
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.403
.693
OPS
▲
.743
182
▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+91.0% more
Milwaukee: 1.5
vs
Seattle: 0.6
Hits (L5)
+26.6% more
Milwaukee: 11.0
vs
Seattle: 8.7
Total Bases (L5)
+26.2% more
Milwaukee: 16.6
vs
Seattle: 13.2
Runs per Game (Season)
+25.4% more
Milwaukee: 5.1
vs
Seattle: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SEA Score
4.7
4
MIL Score
5.2
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 1.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
11.0 / 8.7
11.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 0.6
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.6 / 9.3
9.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
16.6 / 13.2
18.0 / 7.0
Walks
4.6 / 4.5
3.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +108 / -131
→
+125 / -134
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
SEA
MIL
SEA
ML
62%
101-61
50%
81-81
52%
84-78
52%
85-77
ATS
58%
94-68
60%
98-64
48%
78-84
59%
95-67
TTL
40%
62-92-8
56%
85-67-10
50%
77-77-8
53%
81-71-10
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