LOS ANGELES
DODGERSLAD
77-51 | Road
6
COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
50-77 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Roki Sasaki
#11 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Kyle Freeland
#21 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roki Sasaki | 5-5 | 4.46 | 1.29 | 111.0 | 108 |
| Kyle Freeland | 4-10 | 6.27 | 1.44 | 120.2 | 98 |
5-5
W-L
4-10
4.46 Ldr
ERA
6.27
1.29 Ldr
WHIP
1.44
111.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 120.2
108 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
98
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
64%
ROCKIES
36%
▲ Edge: +0.10% (COL)
DODGERS
66%
Book Odds: -194
ROCKIES
36%
Book Odds: +180
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.1
Projected
Book Total
11.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +1.4 (Under)
Over 11.5
37%
Under 11.5
63%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
COLORADO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around COL +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)
LAD By 1-2 runs
19.7%
LAD By 3-4 runs
17.5%
COL By 1-2 runs
15.0%
COL By 3-4 runs
9.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Los Angeles
5.8
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 6.50
Colorado
4.3
COLORADO
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
Los Angeles
7
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 6.50
Colorado
5
COLORADO
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Dodgers
Win
64% Win Prob
A
Sim
Dodgers
Win
70% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rockies (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.5
D
Sim
Dodgers (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u11.5
Win
Proj Total: 10.1
C
Sim
o11.5
Loss
Proj Total: 12.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 19, 2026
LAD @ COL
6 - 4
Aug 18, 2026
LAD @ COL
7 - 6
Aug 17, 2026
LAD @ COL
11 - 5
Jul 8, 2026
COL @ LAD
3 - 4
Jul 7, 2026
COL @ LAD
4 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles
LAD
vs
Colorado
COL
162
Games Played
162
4.94
▲
Runs / Game
4.64
.257
▲
Avg (AVG)
.254
.338
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.322
.424
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.417
.762
▲
OPS
.739
204
▲
Home Runs
180
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+45.6% more
Los Angeles: 1.6
vs
Colorado: 0.9
Total Bases (L5)
+26.5% more
Los Angeles: 17.4
vs
Colorado: 12.8
Hits (L5)
+14.6% more
Los Angeles: 9.3
vs
Colorado: 7.9
Home Runs (Season)
+11.8% more
Los Angeles: 204.0
vs
Colorado: 180.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LAD Score
5.8
6
COL Score
4.3
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.4 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.9 / 9.3
9.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.6
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.6 / 6.4
12.0 / 15.0
Total Bases
12.8 / 17.4
16.0 / 18.0
Walks
3.2 / 2.5
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -193 / +158
→
-194 / +180
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 11.5
→
11.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD
Advantage
103-63-0
(62.1%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0
(35.8%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-:
COL
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3%
Total +/-: 0.0
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
LAD
COL
LAD
ML
60%
97-64
56%
92-73
55%
88-73
48%
79-87
ATS
60%
97-64
59%
98-67
52%
83-78
43%
72-94
TTL
60%
93-62-6
48%
77-82-6
50%
77-78-6
44%
70-90-6
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