SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
60-67 | Road
7
MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
78-49 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Logan Gilbert
#36 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Dustin May
#21 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Gilbert | 9-7 | 3.28 | 0.99 | 145.1 | 152 |
| Dustin May | 6-7 | 4.13 | 1.25 | 122.0 | 117 |
9-7
W-L
6-7
3.28 Ldr
ERA
4.13
0.99 Ldr
WHIP
1.25
145.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
122.0
152 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
117
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
49%
BREWERS
51%
▲ Edge: +0.50% (SEA)
MARINERS
48%
Book Odds: +108
BREWERS
54%
Book Odds: -116
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.2
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.7 (Over)
Over 7.5
66%
Under 7.5
34%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIL -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
SEA By 1-2 runs
18.1%
SEA By 3-4 runs
13.0%
MIL By 1-2 runs
18.7%
MIL By 3-4 runs
14.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Seattle
4.5
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 4.50
Milwaukee
4.7
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 3
Simulated Score
Seattle
4
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 4.50
Milwaukee
3
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 3
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Brewers
Loss
51% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mariners
Win
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Brewers (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.2
B
Sim
Mariners (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.2
B
Sim
u7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 20, 2026
SEA @ MIL
4 - 7
Aug 19, 2026
SEA @ MIL
7 - 5
Aug 18, 2026
SEA @ MIL
0 - 22
Jul 23, 2025
MIL @ SEA
10 - 2
Jul 22, 2025
MIL @ SEA
0 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle
SEA
vs
Milwaukee
MIL
162
Games Played
162
4.10
Runs / Game
▲
5.14
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.341
.379
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.403
.693
OPS
▲
.743
182
▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+87.0% more
Milwaukee: 1.7
vs
Seattle: 0.9
Hits (L5)
+55.7% more
Milwaukee: 12.5
vs
Seattle: 8.0
Total Bases (L5)
+46.6% more
Milwaukee: 19.5
vs
Seattle: 13.3
Runs per Game (Season)
+25.4% more
Milwaukee: 5.1
vs
Seattle: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SEA Score
4.5
7
MIL Score
4.7
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 1.4
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
12.5 / 8.0
8.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.7 / 0.9
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.9 / 9.0
11.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
19.5 / 13.3
11.0 / 13.0
Walks
4.5 / 4.2
5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +108 / -131
→
+108 / -116
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
↓
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
7.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
SEA
MIL
SEA
ML
62%
101-61
50%
81-81
52%
84-78
52%
85-77
ATS
58%
94-68
60%
98-64
48%
78-84
59%
95-67
TTL
40%
62-92-8
56%
85-67-10
50%
77-77-8
53%
81-71-10
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