NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
71-55 | Road
5
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
61-66 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Will Warren
#29 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Chris Bassitt
#40 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Warren | 8-6 | 4.42 | 1.41 | 118.0 | 117 |
| Chris Bassitt | 4-4 | 5.11 | 1.62 | 61.2 | 40 |
8-6
W-L
4-4
4.42 Ldr
ERA
5.11
1.41 Ldr
WHIP
1.62
118.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
61.2
117 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
40
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
50%
ORIOLES
50%
▲ Edge: +0.20% (BAL)
YANKEES
52%
Book Odds: -106
ORIOLES
50%
Book Odds: -101
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.2
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.8 (Under)
Over 9.0
43%
Under 9.0
57%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BAL -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
NYY By 1-2 runs
18.1%
NYY By 3-4 runs
13.0%
BAL By 1-2 runs
18.7%
BAL By 3-4 runs
14.1%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
4
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 5.20
Baltimore
4.2
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 3.80
Simulated Score
New York
2
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 5.20
Baltimore
3
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 3.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Orioles
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Orioles
Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Orioles (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.2
B
Sim
Orioles (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
u9.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.2
C
Sim
u9.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 25, 2026
BAL @ NYY
3 - 6
Aug 20, 2026
NYY @ BAL
6 - 1
Aug 19, 2026
NYY @ BAL
5 - 3
Aug 18, 2026
NYY @ BAL
3 - 1
May 13, 2026
NYY @ BAL
0 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYY
vs
Baltimore
BAL
1
Games Played
▲
161
9.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.375
▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.447
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.594
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
1.041
▲
OPS
.711
2
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+9850.0% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
New York: 2.0
Home Runs (L5)
+92.0% more
Baltimore: 1.7
vs
New York: 0.8
Total Bases (L5)
+66.4% more
Baltimore: 15.0
vs
New York: 9.0
Hits (L5)
+55.8% more
Baltimore: 8.6
vs
New York: 5.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYY Score
4.0
5
BAL Score
4.2
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.8
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.6 / 5.5
6.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.7 / 0.8
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.8 / 9.8
10.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
15.0 / 9.0
14.0 / 13.0
Walks
3.9 / 2.6
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -105 / -115
→
-106 / -101
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1 / +1
→
-1.5 / +1.5
↓
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
9
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
NYY
BAL
NYY
ML
53%
83-73
47%
76-85
57%
90-69
52%
85-77
ATS
61%
95-60-1
59%
95-66
57%
90-68-1
53%
86-76
TTL
54%
81-70-5
53%
81-73-7
51%
78-75-6
53%
82-72-7
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